27th November 2025
Commodity markets delivered a mixed performance today, with energy prices balancing geopolitical developments against shifting supply expectations, while metals saw varied moves driven by changing fundamentals, macro signals and evolving trade dynamics. Sentiment across the complex remained cautious as traders assessed peace-deal headlines, winter demand trends and policy uncertainty.
Coal
API2 swaps were broadly steady today, easing only slightly despite continued pressure on European gas, where near-term contracts fell more than 1%. NEWC swaps extended their downward move, with a quiet physical Newcastle market offering little support or direction. Oil prices were similarly subdued, with front-month Brent crude finishing the day close to unchanged. Global coal fundamentals remained mixed. Australia established a temporary maritime exclusion zone around Newcastle ahead of planned protests, while India’s October thermal coal imports declined on softer coal-fired generation. Vietnam’s imports rose sharply, driven by strong Australian flows, and Indonesian producer PKPK reached its 2025 output target early with plans to expand production next year. Colombia’s Drummond recorded its highest monthly exports in more than a decade, whereas Pakistan is set to scale back Indonesian coal purchases due to supply and quality concerns, likely shifting demand toward South Africa. ARA hub stocks saw a marked increase on strong arrivals despite limited Rhine transport, and Thailand’s imports eased amid strong domestic supply. Policy trends also continued to reshape longer-term demand, with South Korea accelerating its coal phase-out and Germany increasingly turning toward gas-fired power as relative economics improve.
Brent Crude
Oil prices were steady today, as markets balanced progress in Russia–Ukraine peace discussions with the ongoing impact of Western sanctions on Russian supply. President Putin said elements of a draft peace plan discussed by the U.S. and Ukraine could form the basis for ending the conflict, though Kyiv remains wary of accepting terms that may require territorial concessions. Ongoing diplomatic engagement—combined with tightening sanctions from Western allies—added to uncertainty. OPEC+ is expected to keep output levels unchanged at its upcoming meeting, with members likely to maintain their pause on production increases into early 2026. Expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December helped limit downside pressure by improving the demand outlook.
Spot Brent at 16h33 GMT – $62.73/bll, Up 0.30%
European LNG
European natural gas futures extended losses, moving below €29.5/MWh, as reports of Ukraine agreeing to a revised peace framework continued to weigh on sentiment. Negotiations remain fluid, with positions in Washington, Kyiv and Moscow still unaligned. Strong LNG and Norwegian pipeline inflows, combined with forecasts for milder early-December temperatures, eased winter supply concerns. Europe remains reliant on LNG as Russian pipeline gas now accounts for only around 10% of imports.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h30 GMT – €29.17/MWh, Down 0.44%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures remained firm, with the most-active DCE I2601 contract closing at 799.5 yuan, up 0.44% on the day. Traders were active sellers, while steel mills showed limited willingness to restock. Despite a slight decline in apparent demand for major steel products, inventories continue to fall due to steady production, signalling resilient end-use demand and reducing the risk of negative feedback. Ore prices briefly broke above 800 yuan before easing, with caution prevailing given high price levels and weakening fundamentals. Without fresh drivers, the market still faces the risk of a correction.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 16h22 GMT – $105.35/mt, Up, 0.43%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices came under pressure from a firmer dollar and weak Chinese economic data, including a contraction in industrial profits and renewed stress among major property developers. The metal had hit a near one-month high in the previous session, but sentiment softened as attention turned to China’s economic challenges. Technical support stands around the 21-day moving average at $10,811. A persistent premium of 2–3% for Comex copper over LME prices continues to draw metal into U.S. warehouses, a trend the LME expects to last for at least another 18 months due to uncertainty over U.S. import tariffs. LME-registered stocks, down 42% this year, contrast sharply with swelling inventories in the U.S., now above 400,000 short tons. LME officials also highlighted ongoing efforts to improve access for Chinese participants, including plans to accept offshore yuan as collateral and deepen engagement with domestic institutions.
LME 3-month copper at 16h30 GMT – $10,944/mt, Down 0.29%
As the week progresses, attention will remain fixed on geopolitical negotiations, weather-driven demand patterns and upcoming macro data. Energy and metals markets are likely to stay sensitive to new information, with volatility expected to persist until clearer direction emerges heading into December.
