28th November 2025
Prices at 17h00 – Brent@ $63.16/bll; Iron Ore@ $106.05/mt; Copper@ $11,186/mt; Chrome 40-42% @ $217/mt; LME Lead @ $1,980.50/mt
Markets delivered a mixed performance today, with energy, metals and bulk commodities each responding to a blend of supply developments, geopolitical uncertainty and shifting seasonal dynamics. Sentiment across the complex remained cautious as traders assessed weakening demand signals in some sectors against pockets of resilience in others.
*Coal*
European energy markets were mixed today, with power prices firming while gas contracts edged lower. API2 and API4 ultimately finished higher, supported by improved physical bidding, and Newcastle also posted a modest gain despite a softer physical index. Heavy rainfall and the approach of the Christmas period have reduced buyer interest in available cargoes. India remained the key destination for South African supply, taking 796,000 t as sponge iron and cement producers rebuilt inventories after recent floods. Some interest emerged for 5,500 NAR December Panamax cargoes out of RBCT at around $74/mt.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude was largely unchanged on Friday as drawn-out Russia–Ukraine peace talks kept geopolitical uncertainty elevated, while traders looked ahead to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting for direction on future output policy. Brent is set for a fourth consecutive monthly decline—its longest losing streak since 2023—amid expectations of rising global supply, though the contract is still up more than 1% on the week. Analysts noted that strong refinery margins are supporting demand in some regions, but concerns about a looming surplus remain the dominant driver. Earlier in the week, optimism over a potential peace deal pushed oil sharply lower, though prices have since stabilised as negotiations slowed. Markets remain caught between the lack of immediate sanctions relief for Russia and the possibility of a settlement later on. OPEC+ is expected to keep production levels unchanged this weekend and agree on a mechanism to assess future capacity. Saudi Arabia is also expected to cut its January crude price for Asian buyers to a five-year low amid ample supply.
_Spot Brent at 17h08 GMT – $62.95/bll, Up 0.16%_
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures retreated, with the I2601 contract closing at 794 yuan, down 0.19%. Port pick-up volumes continued to decline, indicating weaker steel mill buying, while inventories rebuilt and supply pressure increased. Hot-metal output is expected to fall further next week as more blast furnaces undergo maintenance, weighing on ore demand. Despite the softer fundamentals, futures found some support from macro sentiment and the approach of the delivery period, which is expected to narrow the spot-futures spread. Supply tightness also re-emerged after Australian and Brazilian exports fell 2.7mn t last week. China’s proposal to cut port fees for cargoes stored less than 30 days may accelerate turnover and tighten spot availability during restocking. Sentiment was further lifted by a positive phone call between Presidents Xi and Trump and growing expectations of a more aggressive U.S. rate-cutting cycle.
_Spot SGX 62% Fe at 17h00 GMT – $106.05/mt, Up0.62%_
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices softened after touching a one-month high, pressured by a stronger dollar and weak Chinese economic data, including a fall in industrial profits and renewed stress in the property sector. Technical support sits near the 21-day moving average at $10,811. The persistent 2–3% premium for Comex over LME copper continues to draw metal into U.S. warehouses—a divergence the LME expects to last at least another 18 months due to tariff uncertainty. Comex stocks reached a record 378,900 t this week, while LME-registered inventories dropped to 157,175 t, down 42% this year. The LME cash-to-three-month premium reached $25/t earlier in the week before easing to $20/t.
_LME 3-month copper at 17h00 GMT – $11,186/mt, Up 2.28%_
*Chrome*
Chrome ore prices fell further this week, with demand remaining weak and the market stuck in a downturn. Port inventories stayed high and continued to build, adding pressure on traders. A sharp inversion between spot and futures prices worsened sentiment. Some ferrochrome producers re-entered the market, but their bids sat below offer levels, limiting transactions. Zimbabwean concentrate prices continued to drop amid large arrivals, squeezing South African fines. Turkish fines also edged lower. Overseas offers for 40–42% South African fines fell $7 m/m to $263/mt, likely weighing on next week’s spot market. With supply rising and no meaningful demand recovery, chrome ore is expected to remain under pressure in the near term.
_South African Chrome Ore (40–42%) – $271/mt CIF China_
_South African Chrome Lump (38% Min) – $225/mt CIF China_
*Lead*
Lead concentrate inventories at major Chinese ports fell sharply this week to 15,300 tonnes, down 5,600 tonnes from last week. Social inventories across seven regions declined to 35,000 tonnes, a weekly drop of 2,000 tonnes and down 2,700 tonnes week-on-week. Regional tightness in lead ingot supply is forcing end-users to draw from nearby commercial warehouses, further reducing inventories. With more maintenance expected at primary smelters in December and weaker output from secondary smelters following recent price declines, supply tightness is likely to persist, keeping social inventories at low levels.
_LME 3-month lead at 17h00 GMT – $1,980/mt, Down 0.28%_
With geopolitical talks ongoing, winter fundamentals evolving and macro expectations shifting, price action is likely to stay sensitive across commodities. Energy markets face a delicate balance between supply expectations and policy outcomes, while metals and bulks continue to navigate uneven demand and tightening regional supply conditions as we head into December.
