1st December 2025
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $98.00/mt; Dec API4 $89.35/mt
Brent Crude: $63/bll, Up 0.99%
Iron Ore: $106.80/mt, Down 0.23%
Copper: $11,253.50/mt, Up 0.52%
Lead: $2,006, Up 1.24%
Commodity markets opened the week on a firmer footing, with energy and metals responding to a combination of renewed supply risks, shifting macro expectations and evolving seasonal dynamics. Price action reflected a cautious but active market, driven by geopolitical developments and tightening conditions in several key supply chains.
Coal
Coal prices resumed their recent downward trend today, with moderate declines across all major indices as broader energy markets weakened sharply. European gas was notably volatile, finishing around 2% lower after being down as much as 3% intraday, adding further pressure to API2 swaps. In the physical Newcastle market, more aggressive offering than seen in recent weeks pushed the shorter-dated NEWC swaps lower.
Brent Crude
Oil prices rose around 1% on Monday as fresh supply risks emerged following a drone strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions, while OPEC+ confirmed it will keep production levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026. The CPC — which handles about 1% of global oil flows — reported damage to one of three loading moorings at its Novorossiysk terminal, briefly raising concerns about export disruptions. Chevron, a CPC partner, later said loadings were continuing, as the terminal typically operates with two moorings and keeps one in reserve. The incident followed intensified Ukrainian military activity in the Black Sea, including strikes on two tankers headed for Novorossiysk. Adding to market uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump declared Venezuelan airspace “closed,” raising questions about potential restrictions on a major oil exporter.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures extended their rally, with the most-active I2601 contract hitting 803.5 intraday and closing at 801 yuan, up 1.14%. Traders were active sellers, while steel mills remained cautious with limited buying interest. Despite continued growth in iron ore supply and weak fundamentals in the medium term, short-term sentiment has been buoyed by rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and lower coke prices, which have improved steel mill margins. Market optimism has driven prices higher, although increasing blast furnace maintenance and softening underlying demand suggest upside remains constrained.
Copper (LME)
Copper climbed to a fresh record on the LME amid growing fears of a global supply crunch. Prices briefly reached $11,294.50/mt before easing, while U.S. Comex futures jumped as much as 1.6%. Traders are accelerating shipments into the U.S. ahead of potential tariff decisions, tightening availability elsewhere as mine disruptions and smelter–miner negotiations highlight ongoing supply stress. Industry warnings — including from Mercuria, which expects metal shortages next year — reinforced bullish sentiment. Copper has gained nearly 30% on the LME this year, with expectations that U.S. import duties from 2027 could pull more than 500,000 tons into the U.S. in Q1 2026 alone.
Lead
As December begins, supply tightness in the lead market persists due to ongoing maintenance and production cuts at both primary and secondary smelters. Consumption has shown some improvement, and lead ingot inventories are expected to remain low, offering near-term price support. Attention is shifting to year-end restocking by downstream buyers, which — if sustained — could help lead prices gradually recover.
With geopolitical uncertainty still high and year-end fundamentals in flux, markets are likely to remain sensitive to incoming news over the coming sessions. Supply-side disruptions, policy signals and demand trends will continue to shape sentiment as traders position themselves for December and early 2026.
