19th November 2025
Energy markets softened across the board today, setting a weaker tone for commodities. Coal, gas, and crude all came under pressure as sentiment shifted on rising inventories, milder weather forecasts, and a broader pullback across the energy complex.
Coal
There was further weakness across the coal swap market today, with NEWC contracts leading the declines after showing relative resilience yesterday. Bids in the physical Newcastle market were also noticeably less aggressive. European gas and oil prices fell more sharply, with front-end gas down roughly 2.5% and front-month Brent crude losing more than 2%. This broader energy softness added to the downward pressure on coal swaps.
Brent Crude
Crude prices fell sharply today after API data showed a sizeable build in US crude and product inventories, reinforcing concerns that supply is outpacing demand. The report indicated a 4.45 million-barrel rise in crude stocks for the week ending 14 November, alongside increases of 1.55 million barrels in gasoline and 577,000 barrels in distillates. The decline in prices came despite ongoing risks to global supply from Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and uncertainty over how US sanctions on major Russian producers may affect trade flows. Markets now look to Thursday’s US jobs data for signals on future Federal Reserve rate decisions.
Spot Brent at 16h40 GMT – $63.34/bbl, Down 2.39%
European LNG
European gas futures dropped 2% to below €31/MWh as forecasts pointed to a shift toward milder weather next week, reducing expected heating demand. While cold, calm conditions are still expected through Saturday, the subsequent rebound in temperatures weighed on prices. EU storage stands at 81.7%, down from 90.7% a year ago, with moderate withdrawals continuing. Norwegian pipeline flows and LNG imports remain stable, with Europe receiving 101.38 million tonnes so far this year, an increase of 16.75 million tonnes from 2024. Ukraine has also secured US LNG via Greece for December–March to mitigate winter risks.
Additional pressure came from reports that Russia’s Novatek is offering steep discounts—30% to 40%—to Chinese buyers for gas from its Arctic LNG 2 project to move unsold volumes.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h30 GMT – €30.88/MWh, Down 1.76%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures edged higher, with the DCE I2601 contract settling at 791.5 yuan/mt, up 0.76%. Steel mills increased ore procurement as inventories tightened, even as margins remained under pressure from weak steel prices. Demand from non-property sectors now accounts for more than 72% of China’s steel use, helping offset persistent weakness in construction. China’s domestic iron ore output fell 2.9% y/y in October, and port stockpiles dropped by 1.32 million tonnes. While steel demand shows signs of stabilising, particularly outside the property sector, analysts warn that higher global ore shipments and rising Chinese inventories could limit upside. With blast furnace maintenance delays keeping hot metal output relatively stable, near-term support remains, but prices are expected to stay rangebound.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 15h11 GMT – $104.40/mt, Down 0.05%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices rebounded as bargain-hunters returned following a nearly 5% pullback from last month’s record high of $11,200. LME 3-month copper rose 0.30%, supported by stabilising global equities and renewed risk appetite ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. A firmer Chinese yuan also helped steady sentiment by lowering the cost of dollar-denominated commodities for Chinese buyers.
Supply concerns remain in focus following disruptions at several major mines. Freeport-McMoRan reaffirmed that production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine is expected to resume by July 2026 after September’s lethal mudflow incident halted operations. The most active SHFE copper contract closed 0.2% higher at 86,080 yuan/t.
LME 3-month copper at 16h32 GMT – $10,747.50/mt, Up 0.30%
By the close, the downturn in gas and oil had filtered through to coal, leaving markets generally on the defensive. With attention now turning to upcoming macro data and evolving supply signals, traders remain cautious about near-term direction.
