18th November 2025
Market activity was generally steady today, with coal again showing the clearest direction as stronger physical Newcastle bids buoyed the front of the curve. Across the broader energy complex, crude and gas held within tight ranges, while metals markets continued to respond to shifting macro expectations and evolving supply signals.
Coal
Bids in the physical Newcastle market moved sharply higher today, providing clear support to the front-end NEWC swaps, though contracts further along the curve eased back. European gas and oil markets were steady, closing almost unchanged on the day. API2 swaps, meanwhile, softened again as the market unwound some of the gains from recent sessions.
Brent Crude
Oil prices traded slightly lower as the market adjusted to the quicker-than-expected restart of Russian exports from the Novorossiysk hub, where loadings resumed after a two-day halt caused by a Ukrainian drone and missile strike. The rapid restoration of flows eased some of last week’s supply concerns. Attention also centred on China, where crude inflows into storage increased in October. A surplus of around 690,000 bpd—up from 570,000 bpd in September—indicates that imports and domestic output continued to outpace refinery demand. China’s stockpiling behaviour has become an increasingly important factor for global balances, adding uncertainty to demand projections.
The broader backdrop remains soft. After peaking at US$82.63/bbl in mid-January, crude has drifted downward, punctuated only by short-lived geopolitical spikes. With Russian supply returning, China’s inventory absorption uneven, and major agencies highlighting a potential surplus into early 2025, the near-term outlook leans bearish. Prices remain range-bound, capped by technical resistance unless a fresh disruption emerges.
Spot Brent at 16h37 GMT – $64.10/bll, Down, -0.17%
European LNG
European gas futures edged above €31/MWh, recovering from last week’s 18-month low of €30.50 as a sharp cold front lifted heating demand. Storage sits at 82.02% of capacity—well below last year’s 91.27%—suggesting heavier withdrawals through late November as temperatures fall. Norwegian pipeline flows remain steady, while LNG imports are robust but not sufficient to fully cushion the cold-weather demand increase. Europe has taken in 101.38 million tonnes of LNG so far this year, 16.75 million tonnes more than in 2024. In parallel, Ukraine has secured US LNG via Greece for December–March to hedge supply risks amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h30 GMT – €31.60/MWh, Up +0.39%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures continued to firm, with the most-traded I2601 contract settling at 792 yuan/mt, up 1.41% on the day. Market activity remained moderate: mills purchased on a needs basis, traders were active sellers, and tighter port spot availability—driven by a slight fall in weekly arrivals—offered short-term support. On the demand side, SMM data show a small rise in blast furnace maintenance this week, with hot metal output expected to dip slightly. This leaves the market in a temporary state of weak supply and weak demand, with little fresh macro or policy news to shift sentiment. Prices are expected to remain volatile but broadly range-bound.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 15h30 GMT – $104.30/mt, Down, -0.10%
Copper (LME)
Copper extended its decline for a third consecutive session as the market reassessed the likelihood of a December US rate cut. A firmer dollar and a lack of new macro data kept sentiment subdued. Analysts highlighted the absence of fresh US economic releases—delayed by the government shutdown—as a factor contributing to uncertainty in rate expectations. In the broader macro backdrop, China–US economic engagement is set to resume, offering some support to metals sentiment ahead of the 4th Plenary Session and the draft 15th Five-Year Plan. On fundamentals, China produced 1.266 million tonnes of refined copper in September, up 10.1% y/y. Production eased 2.7% m/m, and additional smelter cuts are expected in October. Domestic spot inventories fell 5,700 t between 20–23 October despite steady arrivals, suggesting tighter local supply. However, elevated prices continue to curb downstream purchasing. Overall, the macro outlook for 2026 is improving, but caution persists at current price levels.
LME 3-month copper at 16h31 GMT – $10,719.50/mt, Down, 0.55%
By the close, sentiment remained measured across most markets. Coal retained a firmer tone, yet crude, gas, iron ore and copper all traded within established ranges, reflecting a market still searching for clearer catalysts. Attention now turns to upcoming data releases, policy developments, and near-term weather patterns that may set the tone for the rest of the week.
