17th November 2025
Markets opened the week with a cautious but steady tone, as coal extended its recent gains and energy prices held relatively firm. Broader sentiment remained shaped by winter demand signals, geopolitical developments, and ongoing scrutiny of supply dynamics across crude and gas markets.
Coal
The modest rally that began late last week continued today, with NEWC swaps leading the gains, supported by signs of softer offering levels in the physical Newcastle market. European gas was more restrained, with front-end contracts finishing only slightly higher, while oil remained steady, leaving Brent crude essentially unchanged on the day.
Brent Crude
Oil prices were largely steady today, easing slightly in the afternoon as loadings resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub following a two-day suspension triggered by a Ukrainian drone strike. Both benchmarks had gained more than 2% on Friday after exports were halted at Novorossiysk and the neighbouring CPC terminal, temporarily affecting roughly 2% of global supply. Loadings resumed on Sunday, according to industry sources and LSEG data, though continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries — including Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk — kept supply risks in focus. Investors are assessing the potential long-term impact of these attacks on Russian exports, as well as the effect of tightening Western sanctions. From 21 November, the US will ban dealings with Lukoil and Rosneft, and additional sanctions targeting trade with Russia are being discussed. OPEC+ has maintained its plan to raise output by 137,000 bpd in December, with a pause scheduled for the first quarter of next year.
Spot Brent at 16h30 GMT – $64.35/bbl, Down −0.05%
European LNG
European natural gas futures inched higher, rebounding from last week’s 18-month low of €30.50/MWh as a sharp cold front boosted heating demand. Storage levels stand at 82.02% of capacity, well below 91.27% this time last year, signalling the potential for heavier withdrawals as temperatures fall. Norwegian pipeline flows and LNG imports remain steady, though not enough to fully offset rising consumption. Europe has received 101.38m tonnes of LNG so far this year, 16.75m tonnes more than in 2024. Ukraine has also secured US LNG via Greece for December to March, adding a buffer against winter supply risks.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h30 GMT – €31.42/MWh, Up +0.52%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures strengthened, with the I2601 contract closing at 788.5 yuan, up 1.81% on the day. Trading sentiment improved, supported by steady buying from steel mills—some of which increased restocking amid stronger steel sales. Shipments and arrivals fell simultaneously, easing short-term supply pressure and helping to fuel the rebound.
Despite today’s gains, the wider backdrop of strong supply and softening demand remains intact, leaving iron ore prices under downward pressure.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 15h13 GMT – $104.20/mt, Down −0.24%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices declined as a firmer US dollar, reduced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut, and broader macro uncertainty weighed on sentiment. Benchmark three-month LME copper fell 0.5% to $10,802.50/t in official trading. Markets remain subdued as participants await delayed US economic data and clearer guidance on monetary policy. Weakness in recent Chinese industrial indicators has also tempered demand expectations, despite ongoing investment in infrastructure and green energy. The cash-to-three-month spread shows an $18/t contango, signalling comfortable near-term availability.
LME 3-month copper at 16h22 GMT – $10,768.50/mt, Down −0.80%
By the close, the day’s moves reflected a measured risk environment: coal remained the standout, while crude, gas, and metals traded within tight ranges. Attention now shifts to incoming macro data, weather-driven demand trends, and further updates on supply disruptions that may set the pace for the days ahead.
