14 November 2025
Energy markets set the tone today, with firmer oil and gas prices lifting sentiment across the complex and providing support to several related commodities. Metals, however, diverged, reflecting softer macro signals and sector-specific pressures.
Coal
Coal prices rebounded today, supported by broader strength across the energy complex. European gas rose nearly 2%, while front-month Brent crude gained more than 2% amid continued oil price volatility. This lifted sentiment in coal, with API2 recording the strongest gains. The physical Newcastle market remained relatively steady.
Brent Crude
Oil prices rose more than 2% on supply concerns after a Ukrainian drone strike hit an oil depot in Novorossiisk, prompting the Black Sea port to halt exports. Transneft also suspended crude flows to the terminal, which handled 3.22 million tonnes of crude in October. Despite the spike, Brent and WTI remain broadly stable on the week, up around 0.7% and 0.15% respectively. Markets are also assessing the impact of expanding Western sanctions on Russian oil trade. The UK issued a special licence allowing continued business with two Bulgarian subsidiaries of Lukoil after the Bulgarian government seized control of the assets.
Spot Brent at 16h30 GMT – $64.45/bll, Up +2.30%
European LNG
European gas futures picked up today despite strong LNG inflows, robust Norwegian pipeline supply, and mild, windy weather. Warmer conditions in China reduced Asian consumption, releasing more LNG cargoes to Europe. Imports reached 101.38m tonnes in the first ten months of the year, up 16.75m tonnes year-on-year. EU storage stands at 82.61%, below last year but narrowing the deficit as withdrawals begin to pick up with colder weather. Forecasts indicate sharply lower temperatures from Monday, with LDZ demand in Northwest Europe expected to rise by around 1,105 GWh per day. Analysts note that while the market is well balanced for winter, weather remains the key uncertainty for TTF pricing. Meanwhile, renewed Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure could increase Ukraine’s reliance on European gas.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h30 GMT – €31.20/MWh, Up +2.15%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures firmed slightly, with the I2601 contract closing at 772.5 yuan, up 0.26%. Spot markets were largely steady ahead of the weekend amid sluggish trading. Winter weather disruptions and environmental restrictions have constrained transport, prompting some steel mills to build inventories and lift port pick-up volumes. This has offered short-term support. However, rising blast furnace maintenance and an expected drop in hot metal output next week point to softer demand, leaving ore prices likely to remain rangebound with a weaker bias.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 15h15 GMT – $103.45/mt, Down -0.10%
Copper (LME)
Copper and other base metals retreated on Friday as weaker Chinese economic data revived concerns over demand. Industrial output and retail sales grew at their slowest pace in more than a year, adding pressure on policymakers in China’s US$19 trillion economy. Copper remains on course for a weekly gain of about 1.2% after briefly surpassing US$11,000 on Thursday, though sentiment softened as hopes for a US rate cut in December faded. A broad risk-off shift in global equities also weighed on prices.
LME 3-month copper at 16h21 GMT – $10,871/mt, Down -0.82%
Lithium (Spodumene)
Spodumene prices have rebounded above US$1,000/t, supported by strong demand from battery energy storage systems and disciplined supply from major Western and Chinese producers. Prices had fallen from peaks above US$8,000/t in 2022 to below US$600/t earlier this year, but rapid recoveries following short downturns have lifted sentiment. Analysts expect further gains as more supply delays emerge, particularly among large producers.
Spodumene Concentrate Index – CIF China: US$1,006/t
Chrome Ore
Chrome ore extended its gradual decline this week as supply outpaced demand. Weak stainless steel markets limited buying interest, with ferrochrome producers purchasing cautiously and negotiating lower prices. Sellers, facing spot prices near or below cost, resisted further cuts, resulting in a standoff. Port inventories rose 5.8% to 3.685 million tonnes, adding pressure and driving pessimism across the market. South African fines for the most-traded futures contract remained at US$282/t with no new offers. Transaction activity was limited, and fading support from high ferrochrome production points to continued weakness. The market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term pending new steel tenders and overseas offers.
South African 40–42% Cr₂O₃ CIF China: US$280.50/mt
South African 38% Cr₂O₃ Lump CIF China: US$245.50/mt
Overall, markets ended the session mixed, with energy strength contrasting against weakness in parts of the metals complex. Attention now turns to incoming data, winter weather dynamics, and geopolitical developments that may shape next week’s direction.
