23rd March 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: March API2 $121.00/mt ; March API4 $110.50/mt
Brent Crude: $103.42/bll Down 7.82%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $106.45/mt Up 0.09%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,120.50/mt Up 1.60%
LME 3-Month Lead: $1,896.00/mt Up 0.05%
Mn Ore South Africa (Mn42% Fe12%) _ $5.23/mtu CIF North China Down 0.38%_
_Global commodity markets saw a sharp shift in tone today, as geopolitical tensions showed early signs of easing, triggering significant moves across energy, metals, and bulk commodities.
Coal
Another volatile session saw energy markets open stronger, driven by renewed US escalation rhetoric over the weekend, with gas prices rising around 5% and lending support to coal. Sentiment shifted sharply by midday, however, as indications emerged that negotiations between the US and Iran were becoming more likely, prompting a broad reversal across markets.
Oil and gas prices fell back significantly into the close, while equity markets rallied on the improved outlook. Front-month Brent crude declined by nearly 10%, European gas dropped around 5%, and coal swaps followed suit, weakening across the curve.
Brent Crude
Oil markets led the move, with prices plunging after recent gains driven by the US–Iran conflict. Brent and WTI both fell over 14% during Monday’s session after US President Donald Trump indicated that talks with Iran had been “constructive” and confirmed a five-day pause on planned strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure. The announcement eased immediate concerns over supply disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which had been closed amid escalating hostilities. Despite the sharp correction—Brent briefly dropping below $100/bbl for the first time since mid-March—prices remain significantly elevated on the month. Earlier interventions, including strategic reserve releases and sanctions relief on Iranian and Russian crude, had done little to stabilise markets, underscoring how sensitive oil remains to geopolitical developments.
Iron Ore
Iron ore markets were firmer, with Dalian futures rising modestly and the most active contract settling at 819 RMB/tonne. Spot prices also edged higher, although trading activity remained subdued as steel mills continued to procure cautiously. On the supply side, global shipments increased slightly, while arrivals into China declined, helping to ease the previously oversupplied market. At the same time, improving blast furnace utilisation is supporting demand, lending a more constructive tone to fundamentals. However, uncertainty persists around long-term contract negotiations, keeping investors on the sidelines. In the near term, prices are expected to remain volatile but supported at elevated levels.
Copper
Copper rebounded as the easing of geopolitical risk lifted broader market sentiment. Prices rose sharply in early trading following Trump’s announcement, before paring gains amid conflicting reports from Iran. The metal, often viewed as a proxy for global economic health, had recently come under pressure due to concerns around growth and inflation stemming from the conflict. However, underlying demand signals—particularly from China—are improving, with inventories posting their largest weekly drawdown of the year. This suggests that recent price weakness has stimulated buying interest, providing a degree of support despite ongoing macro uncertainty.
Lead
Lead markets remain subdued, with prices continuing to trade at low levels. On the supply side, primary producers have shown limited willingness to sell, while secondary producers are holding firm due to cost pressures, resulting in generally thin market activity. Demand remains weak, with battery manufacturers largely purchasing only against long-term contracts and showing little appetite for spot exposure. While firm scrap costs and producer discipline are providing some downside support, seasonal demand softness and weak macro conditions are capping any upside. Prices are expected to remain rangebound at low levels in the near term.
Manganese
In contrast, the manganese complex continues to strengthen. Rising freight costs, fuel shortages in South Africa, fiscal changes in Ghana, and potential weather disruptions in Australia are all tightening supply expectations and reinforcing bullish sentiment. This has fed through to the silicomanganese market, where prices remain firm, supported by rising input costs and disciplined production. While northern Chinese output is gradually increasing, high power costs and margin pressures in the south are limiting broader supply growth. With steel demand improving seasonally and upstream cost pressures persisting, both manganese ore and alloy markets are expected to remain well supported in the short term.
Overall, markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with sentiment shifting rapidly as headlines evolve. While today’s moves suggest some easing of immediate risks, underlying supply constraints and cost pressures across several commodities continue to point to a structurally firm pricing environment.
