22nd May 2025
*Coal*
Coal swap price action was fairly subdued today although the NEWC swaps did take a step lower during the morning before remaining relatively steady the rest of the day. API2 swaps were also slightly weaker during the day before recovering and ending close to unchanged. European gas prices, as well as oil prices, were fairly stable again, these ending close to unchanged also. Physical markets also did not provide too much direction.
*Brent Crude*
Crude oil prices extended their decline as OPEC+ confirmed plans to further unwind voluntary production cuts. The group, led by Saudi Arabia, intends to add a third tranche of 411,000 bpd in July—part of a phased return of 2.2 million bpd to the market. This shift from price support to market share growth comes amid signs of a slowing global economy, which is tilting the balance toward oversupply. Bearish sentiment was compounded by an unexpected build in U.S. inventories: the EIA reported a 1.3-million-barrel increase last week, against expectations of a 0.9-million-barrel draw. July Brent futures fell 1.20% to $64.15/bbl by 16h00 BST.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European gas prices edged higher amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty and tightening supply fundamentals. Dutch TTF gas futures climbed 0.8% to €36.32/MWh, supported by stalled ceasefire talks over Ukraine and unplanned maintenance at Norway’s Kollsnes gas processing facility. These factors are expected to constrain Norwegian flows in the near term. Meanwhile, weak Asian demand has diverted LNG cargoes toward Europe, though Southeast Asian buying interest is picking up. The IEA forecasts a 25% jump in European LNG imports in 2025, equivalent to 33 bcm, due to reduced pipeline supplies and growing demand. At last check, Dutch TTF was marginally higher at €36.52/MWh (+0.02%).
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices in China were rangebound, with traders weighing firm domestic demand against rising supply. Shipments from Australia and Brazil surged 11.7% last week to 27.1 million tonnes, according to Mysteel. On the DCE, the most-active September contract (I2509) closed up 0.14% at CNY 727. Demand for the five key steel products eased slightly, but inventory levels continued to fall. While a supply-demand imbalance is gradually emerging, current pressure remains limited. On the SGX, July TSI 62% Fe futures held steady at $98.30/ton.
*Copper*
Copper prices retreated as investors remained cautious about macroeconomic headwinds, particularly unresolved trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Although recent agreements have eased some concerns, tariffs of up to 30% on Chinese goods remain in place, with the deal set to expire in 90 days. Meanwhile, rising global inventories—including a steady increase in COMEX stocks—have added to bearish sentiment. While demand remains stable, supply conditions are no longer as tight. LME 3-month copper declined 0.52% to $9,489/mt at 16h10 BST.
