23rd May 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices saw a choppy session, opening stronger before softening mid-day and ultimately recovering into the afternoon. The broader energy complex lent some support, with both European gas and front-month Brent crude rising around 1%. However, gas price movements remained relatively muted, particularly on the near curve where gains were capped below 1%, suggesting ongoing stability. Physical coal markets offered little direction, with sentiment largely driven by shifts in the wider energy landscape rather than fundamentals.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude futures extended their downward trend as OPEC+ reaffirmed its plan to gradually restore 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts by July. The bloc’s shift towards regaining market share, rather than defending price levels, has added bearish pressure amid signs of slowing global demand. Market sentiment was further dampened by an unexpected U.S. inventory build, with the EIA reporting a 1.3-million-barrel rise last week, defying forecasts for a draw. By the close, July Brent futures were down 1.20% at $64.15/bbl.
*European LNG*
Dutch TTF gas prices posted modest gains as ongoing geopolitical tensions and constrained Norwegian supply supported the European market. Delays in ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Western powers, coupled with early maintenance at the Kollsnes gas facility in Norway, raised near-term supply concerns. Despite weak Asian demand diverting some LNG cargoes to Europe, emerging Southeast Asian buying and an IEA forecast projecting a 25% increase in European LNG imports by 2025 helped reinforce the upside. Dutch TTF settled slightly higher at €36.52/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices traded within a narrow range today, with market participants weighing increased shipments against stable downstream demand in China. According to Mysteel, combined weekly exports from Brazil and Australia rose 11.7%, reaching 27.1 million tonnes. Meanwhile, China’s domestic steel demand remained relatively resilient despite a marginal dip in consumption. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded September contract closed at CNY 727, up 0.14% on the day, while SGX July TSI 62% Fe futures held steady at $98.30/ton.
*Copper*
Copper prices softened amid renewed concerns over the sustainability of global demand and growing inventory levels. While recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China eased immediate tariff fears, the 90-day timeline before key provisions expire leaves investors cautious. Rising warehouse stocks, particularly on COMEX, have contributed to a subdued outlook, suggesting demand may not be outpacing supply. As a result, LME 3-month copper ended the day down 0.52% at $9,489/mt.
