Dutch TTF Gas

29th October 2025

Commodity markets firmed today, with strength across coal, gas, and oil as improved bids and steady physical demand lent support to prices across key benchmarks.

Coal
Coal swaps extended their gains today, led by further strength in API2, supported by improved bids in the physical DES ARA market. European gas and crude oil prices also firmed, each rising around 1%. The physical Newcastle market remained steady, with NEWC swaps showing limited movement compared with other indices.

Brent Crude
Brent crude extended losses for a third straight session, falling over 1% as investors weighed new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers against expectations of an OPEC+ output increase. Last week, Brent and WTI recorded their strongest weekly gains since June following Washington’s decision to sanction Rosneft and Lukoil over the war in Ukraine. The market remains uncertain about how effective these measures will be. In response, Lukoil announced plans to sell its international assets — the most significant move yet by a Russian firm under renewed Western pressure.
Spot Brent at 16h34 GMT – $63.72/bll, down -0.22%

European LNG
European gas futures hovered near €32/MWh, holding within their recent range as traders balanced strong inventories with signs of tightening supply and rising demand. LNG deliveries to Europe have eased, while Norwegian pipeline flows dipped due to maintenance, stirring short-term supply concerns. Cooler temperatures across northwest Europe are expected to lift heating demand. EU storage levels remain healthy at about 83%, though some withdrawals have begun as the winter season starts. Markets are watching for possible supply disruptions or renewed competition for LNG cargoes, particularly as Ukraine increases reliance on EU imports after losing much of its domestic output to conflict.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h30 GMT – €31.83/MWh, up +1.28%

Iron Ore
Dalian iron ore futures rose again, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at 804.5 yuan, up 1.96%. Trading remained moderate, with mills restocking cautiously. Environmental restrictions have expanded blast furnace maintenance, cutting daily hot metal output by roughly 24,000mt and weighing on short-term demand. The imminent first shipment from Guinea’s Simandou mine and high port inventories are expected to further loosen market balance. Still, improved macro sentiment, positive U.S.–China trade progress, and a strong domestic equity market have supported iron ore for a third consecutive day.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 16h20 GMT – $105.90/mt, No Change

Copper (LME)
Copper prices hit a record high on the LME, supported by tightening supply and reduced production outlooks from major miners. Glencore trimmed its full-year guidance after weaker output in the first nine months, while Anglo American flagged lower 2026 production at Chile’s Collahuasi mine. Optimism around U.S.–China trade talks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut also buoyed sentiment. Lower interest rates typically support metals demand and weigh on the dollar, making copper more attractive for international buyers.
LME 3-month copper at 16h30 GMT – $11,180.50/mt, up +1.23%

Overall sentiment was positive, with energy markets finding renewed momentum while coal and freight indicators remained stable, reflecting a broadly balanced trading environment heading into midweek.

28th October 2025

Commodity markets traded mixed on Tuesday, with moderate strength across coal and gas contrasting with softer oil prices and cautious sentiment in metals. Broader market attention remained fixed on upcoming U.S.–China trade talks and expectations around OPEC’s next policy move.

Coal
Coal swaps found moderate support today, with segments of the NEWC and API2 curves gaining around $1. Improved bids in the physical Newcastle and DES ARA markets helped underpin sentiment. European gas prices were steady, ending little changed, while oil remained volatile, with front-month Brent crude slipping nearly 2%.

Brent Crude
Oil prices edged lower today as expectations of an OPEC output increase outweighed optimism over a potential U.S.–China trade breakthrough and uncertainty surrounding new sanctions on Russia. Four sources said OPEC is considering a modest production boost in December, continuing the gradual reversal of earlier supply cuts. Hopes for progress in U.S.–China negotiations remain supportive, with Presidents Trump and Xi set to meet in South Korea later this week to advance discussions on trade cooperation.
Spot Brent at 16h30 GMT – $64.93/bll, down 1.17%

European LNG
European gas prices firmed despite mild weather and steady LNG and pipeline inflows. The Dutch TTF front-month rose €0.29 to €31.55/MWh, while the day-ahead gained €0.40 to €31.35/MWh. Analysts attributed the gains to expectations of cooler, less windy conditions later in the week and higher U.S. gasoline prices. Strong Norwegian and Algerian supply and high EU storage levels at 82.8% continue to stabilise the market. Carbon prices also edged higher, with the EU benchmark up €0.32 at €78.08/ton. The EU confirmed it will soon begin joint gas purchasing as part of its plan to phase out Russian energy, with a full ban on Russian LNG expected from January 2027 and oil and gas imports by 2028.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h30 GMT – €31.58/MWh, up 0.89%

Iron Ore
Dalian iron ore futures strengthened, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at 792.5 yuan, up 1.93%. Trading was moderate as mills purchased cautiously and traders followed sentiment. Maintenance at several blast furnaces has curbed hot metal output, pressuring near-term demand amid high port inventories. However, improved sentiment following positive developments in U.S.–China relations and progress on the ASEAN–China trade pact supported futures. Iron ore prices are expected to remain firm but rangebound in the short term.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 14h11 GMT – $105.85/mt, + 0.05%

Copper (LME)
Copper eased today as traders took profits after Monday’s rally toward record highs, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting. Expanding arbitrage opportunities have increased Comex inventories, while the LME cash contract traded at a $24/t discount to the three-month, indicating comfortable near-term supply. In China, the Yangshan import premium fell to $35/t from $58 in late September, reflecting softer buying interest.
LME 3-month copper at 16h20 GMT – $11,040/mt, + 0.07%

Chrome Ore
The chrome ore market remained steady today, with moderate inquiries and limited trading activity. Spot demand was subdued, as ferrochrome producers purchased only to meet essential needs, maintaining downward pressure through counteroffers. On the futures side, offers for 40–42% South African concentrate stood at $280–284/mt, while 48–50% Zimbabwean concentrate was quoted at $340–350/mt, both unchanged from the previous session.
Chrome Ore South African (Cr2O3 40-42%) CIF China – $282/mt
Chrome Ore South African Lumpy (Cr2O3 38%) CIF China – $252.50/mt

Overall, energy markets showed selective firmness while base metals consolidated recent gains ahead of key macroeconomic events. Traders remain watchful of policy developments and shifting supply dynamics across major commodity sectors.

16th October 2025
Commodity markets traded with a firmer tone today, led by renewed strength in coal while broader energy prices held steady. Sentiment improved slightly across the complex, supported by resilient demand signals and more stable trading conditions.

Coal
Coal prices extended yesterday’s gains, with sections of the API2 curve rising by nearly USD 3 on the day and other indices posting smaller increases as bullish sentiment persisted. European gas prices saw modest support, while oil was relatively steady, with front-month Brent crude ending close to unchanged. The physical Newcastle market also remained stable.

Brent Crude
Brent rebounded from a five-month low after U.S. President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil purchases—a move that could tighten global supply. No timeline or official confirmation has been issued by New Delhi. India and China have both taken advantage of discounted Russian crude under the G7 price cap framework, allowing flows to continue while limiting Moscow’s revenue.
U.S. officials have criticised Indian refiners for reselling refined Russian products to Europe, while trade tensions between Washington and New Delhi persist. India’s trade secretary said the country could increase oil imports from the U.S. by USD 15 billion, though Russian barrels still account for roughly 34% of India’s imports, according to Kpler data. Some refiners have begun settling Russian crude purchases in yuan rather than U.S. dollars.
Spot Brent at 16h35 BST – $61.78/bll, down 0.21%

European LNG
European gas futures rose more than 2% intraday after renewed Russian strikes on Ukraine’s gas network sharply reduced output. The attacks have cut nearly 60% of Ukraine’s gas production this month, forcing DTEK to suspend operations in Poltava and damaging Naftogaz infrastructure. The escalation comes as heating demand picks up and inventories dip below seasonal norms. EU storage stands at 83% capacity, down from 93.2% a year ago. LNG imports and Norwegian pipeline flows are helping offset lost volumes, while weaker Chinese offtake from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project is freeing supply for Europe.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 16h35 BST – €32.32/MWh, up 1.55%

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices weakened again, with the I2601 contract closing at CNY 773, down 0.9%. Apparent demand for major steel products improved post-holiday, while inventories declined slightly, but mill margins have contracted sharply, reinforcing negative sentiment. Traders remain cautious ahead of next week’s key policy meeting, with expectations that hot metal output will fall further in the short term, keeping iron ore prices subdued.
Spot SGX 62% iron ore at 16h00 BST – $105.25/mt, down 0.28%

Copper (LME)
Copper’s sustained strength is prompting Chinese smelters to redirect shipments abroad to capture near-record LME prices, as higher domestic costs deter local buyers. Two major smelters reportedly plan to ship up to 25,000 tons of spot material to LME-approved warehouses in Asia in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan announced plans to abandon the industry’s long-standing benchmark pricing system for 2026, opting for individual supply contracts instead. The move follows a collapse in processing fees, which have reached record lows and may turn negative next year, threatening to upend global copper trade dynamics.
LME 3-month copper at 16h25 BST – $10,633/mt, down 0.04%

The day closed with coal maintaining upward momentum and oil and gas finding equilibrium after recent volatility. Overall, markets remain cautiously optimistic, with steady fundamentals and measured risk sentiment guiding trade into the week’s end.

14th October 2025
Commodity markets traded cautiously today, with sentiment mixed across the energy and metals complex. Oil weakened again on soft fundamentals, gas prices held slightly firmer, and coal continued to drift lower amid subdued physical demand.

Coal
NEWC swaps edged lower again, pressured by softer sentiment and improved offers in the physical Newcastle market. A November ’25 loading cargo reportedly traded more than USD 2 below last week’s level. European gas prices were slightly firmer, but continued volatility in oil—where front-month Brent fell around 1.5%—added to overall uncertainty in the energy complex.

Brent Crude
Oil prices reversed early gains and fell on Tuesday as trade tensions between the U.S. and China, combined with a weaker outlook from the International Energy Agency, weighed on sentiment. The IEA raised its forecast for global supply growth following OPEC+’s output increase and lowered its demand forecast amid a softer economic backdrop. Market focus remains on the Middle East ceasefire, continued attacks on Russian and Ukrainian oil facilities, and heightened U.S.–Russia tensions after President Trump signalled possible delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine. Beijing has also announced sanctions against several U.S.-linked firms, adding to fears of a renewed trade war.
Spot Brent at 17h05 BST – $62.27/bbl, down 1.66%

European LNG
European LNG prices rebounded after four consecutive sessions of declines, supported by cooler weather, lower wind output, and slightly higher import activity. The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract rose 0.06 euros to EUR 31.41/MWh, while the day-ahead contract gained 0.15 euros to EUR 31.80/MWh. Residential demand increased this week, though analysts expect it to ease next week as temperatures stabilise. EU gas storage remains at 83.1% of capacity, compared with 95% last year, as inventories begin seasonal drawdowns. Despite ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, overall European storage remains sufficient for winter.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 17h04 BST – €31.80/MWh, up 1.04%

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures fell sharply, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at CNY 782, down 2.07%. Sentiment weakened as traders sold into the decline, and mills limited buying to lower price levels. The removal of port fee concerns provided little support, and demand is expected to soften in the short term. However, blast furnace operations remain stable, keeping iron ore consumption relatively high and limiting further downside pressure.
SGX 62% iron ore at 16h39 BST – $105.70/mt, unchanged

Copper (LME)
Copper prices retreated over 2% as renewed U.S.–China trade friction and softer demand expectations weighed on sentiment. The pullback follows recent multi-month highs, with traders taking profits amid uncertainty over supply tightness. Weaker Chinese industrial activity and growing scepticism toward earlier bullish deficit forecasts also pressured prices.
LME 3-month copper at 16h57 BST – $10,594/mt, down 2.12%

The day closed with a broadly softer tone across commodities. Energy markets remain volatile as traders balance geopolitical risks against weaker fundamentals, while metals consolidated recent gains amid growing concerns over global trade and industrial demand.

13^th October 2025

_Commodity markets were mixed today. Oil recovered modestly on improved U.S.–China sentiment, while LNG softened on ample storage, iron ore firmed on tight supply, and copper steadied near multi-year highs._

*Coal*

Coal prices extended their decline today, with moderate losses across indices compounded by sharper drops in European gas, where shorter-dated contracts fell around 2.5%. The weaker gas market added to bearish sentiment, while slightly better offers in both the prompt physical Newcastle and DES ARA markets further pressured the swaps lower.

*Brent Crude*
Oil prices rose in early trading after President Trump softened his tone toward China, two days after threatening 100% tariffs on imports from Beijing. Brent crude gained 1.6% to USD 63.71/bbl after losing 4% last week. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the key uncertainty is whether the tariffs will be implemented or used as negotiating leverage. Chinese refinery runs increased in September, lifting import volumes, though gains remain capped by easing geopolitical risk after Israel and Hamas agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire and hostage exchange. Despite the rebound, sentiment remains fragile. OPEC+ raised output by 630,000 bpd in September, heightening fears of oversupply later this year. Markets are also watching U.S. moves to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles, a factor that could increase geopolitical tension across OPEC+ producers.
_Spot Brent at 17h10 BST – $63.36/bll, up 1%_

*European LNG*
European gas prices slipped below EUR 32/MWh from last week’s six-week high of EUR 33.3, as strong inventories outweighed winter demand expectations. EU storage stands at 82.9% capacity, led by Italy at 93%, France at 92.5%, and Germany at 76.2%. Forecasts show temperatures 2°C below normal across France and Germany by mid-October, which could lift heating demand. Meanwhile, Russia’s largest strikes on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure since the war began raised risks of temporary supply disruption. Looking longer term, global LNG capacity is projected to expand by 60% by 2030—half from the U.S.—which could result in persistent oversupply and weigh on prices in both Europe and Asia.
_Dutch TTF Gas at 17h10 BST – €31.36/MWh, down 2.51%_

*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures traded in a wide range before closing firmer. The most-traded I2601 contract settled at CNY 804.5, up 1.13% week on week. In Shandong, PB fines traded at CNY 795–798/mt, while Tangshan prices were slightly higher at CNY 800–805/mt. Trading activity was thin as steel mills remained cautious.

Supply tightened last week, with global iron ore shipments down nearly 20% week on week to 28.62 million mt and China arrivals down over 30% to 20.89 million mt. Price volatility increased amid tariff-related news and higher port dues, though firm downstream demand continues to support prices. Market attention now shifts to steel mill margins and their impact on hot metal output.
_Spot SGX 62% iron oreat 16h35 BST – $107.10/mt, down 0.28% _

*Copper (LME)*
Copper briefly touched USD 11,000/mt on 9 October—its third time ever at that level—before easing on renewed tariff concerns between the U.S. and China. The rally, driven by mine disruptions and a weaker dollar, brought prices close to the May 2024 record of USD 11,104.50.

Analysts remain split on the outlook. ING expects gains to rely on stronger Chinese demand, while BNP Paribas sees a balanced market next year. The International Copper Study Group projects a 178,000-ton surplus in 2025 turning to a 150,000-ton deficit by 2026. Combined inventories across LME, SHFE, and Comex total about 556,000 tons, with SHFE stocks near 110,000 tons—up since April but still 60% below February levels.
_LME 3-month copper at 17h06 BST – $10,842.50/mt, up 3.13% ]_

_Oil’s rebound and firm iron ore trading contrasted with continued softness in European gas. Copper held near record levels amid tight supply expectations, leaving commodity markets cautiously balanced between geopolitical risk, policy uncertainty, and uneven demand signals._