28th October 2025
Commodity markets traded mixed on Tuesday, with moderate strength across coal and gas contrasting with softer oil prices and cautious sentiment in metals. Broader market attention remained fixed on upcoming U.S.–China trade talks and expectations around OPEC’s next policy move.
Coal
Coal swaps found moderate support today, with segments of the NEWC and API2 curves gaining around $1. Improved bids in the physical Newcastle and DES ARA markets helped underpin sentiment. European gas prices were steady, ending little changed, while oil remained volatile, with front-month Brent crude slipping nearly 2%.
Brent Crude
Oil prices edged lower today as expectations of an OPEC output increase outweighed optimism over a potential U.S.–China trade breakthrough and uncertainty surrounding new sanctions on Russia. Four sources said OPEC is considering a modest production boost in December, continuing the gradual reversal of earlier supply cuts. Hopes for progress in U.S.–China negotiations remain supportive, with Presidents Trump and Xi set to meet in South Korea later this week to advance discussions on trade cooperation.
Spot Brent at 16h30 GMT – $64.93/bll, down 1.17%
European LNG
European gas prices firmed despite mild weather and steady LNG and pipeline inflows. The Dutch TTF front-month rose €0.29 to €31.55/MWh, while the day-ahead gained €0.40 to €31.35/MWh. Analysts attributed the gains to expectations of cooler, less windy conditions later in the week and higher U.S. gasoline prices. Strong Norwegian and Algerian supply and high EU storage levels at 82.8% continue to stabilise the market. Carbon prices also edged higher, with the EU benchmark up €0.32 at €78.08/ton. The EU confirmed it will soon begin joint gas purchasing as part of its plan to phase out Russian energy, with a full ban on Russian LNG expected from January 2027 and oil and gas imports by 2028.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h30 GMT – €31.58/MWh, up 0.89%
Iron Ore
Dalian iron ore futures strengthened, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at 792.5 yuan, up 1.93%. Trading was moderate as mills purchased cautiously and traders followed sentiment. Maintenance at several blast furnaces has curbed hot metal output, pressuring near-term demand amid high port inventories. However, improved sentiment following positive developments in U.S.–China relations and progress on the ASEAN–China trade pact supported futures. Iron ore prices are expected to remain firm but rangebound in the short term.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 14h11 GMT – $105.85/mt, + 0.05%
Copper (LME)
Copper eased today as traders took profits after Monday’s rally toward record highs, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting. Expanding arbitrage opportunities have increased Comex inventories, while the LME cash contract traded at a $24/t discount to the three-month, indicating comfortable near-term supply. In China, the Yangshan import premium fell to $35/t from $58 in late September, reflecting softer buying interest.
LME 3-month copper at 16h20 GMT – $11,040/mt, + 0.07%
Chrome Ore
The chrome ore market remained steady today, with moderate inquiries and limited trading activity. Spot demand was subdued, as ferrochrome producers purchased only to meet essential needs, maintaining downward pressure through counteroffers. On the futures side, offers for 40–42% South African concentrate stood at $280–284/mt, while 48–50% Zimbabwean concentrate was quoted at $340–350/mt, both unchanged from the previous session.
Chrome Ore South African (Cr2O3 40-42%) CIF China – $282/mt
Chrome Ore South African Lumpy (Cr2O3 38%) CIF China – $252.50/mt
Overall, energy markets showed selective firmness while base metals consolidated recent gains ahead of key macroeconomic events. Traders remain watchful of policy developments and shifting supply dynamics across major commodity sectors.
