14th October 2025
Commodity markets traded cautiously today, with sentiment mixed across the energy and metals complex. Oil weakened again on soft fundamentals, gas prices held slightly firmer, and coal continued to drift lower amid subdued physical demand.
Coal
NEWC swaps edged lower again, pressured by softer sentiment and improved offers in the physical Newcastle market. A November ’25 loading cargo reportedly traded more than USD 2 below last week’s level. European gas prices were slightly firmer, but continued volatility in oil—where front-month Brent fell around 1.5%—added to overall uncertainty in the energy complex.
Brent Crude
Oil prices reversed early gains and fell on Tuesday as trade tensions between the U.S. and China, combined with a weaker outlook from the International Energy Agency, weighed on sentiment. The IEA raised its forecast for global supply growth following OPEC+’s output increase and lowered its demand forecast amid a softer economic backdrop. Market focus remains on the Middle East ceasefire, continued attacks on Russian and Ukrainian oil facilities, and heightened U.S.–Russia tensions after President Trump signalled possible delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine. Beijing has also announced sanctions against several U.S.-linked firms, adding to fears of a renewed trade war.
Spot Brent at 17h05 BST – $62.27/bbl, down 1.66%
European LNG
European LNG prices rebounded after four consecutive sessions of declines, supported by cooler weather, lower wind output, and slightly higher import activity. The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract rose 0.06 euros to EUR 31.41/MWh, while the day-ahead contract gained 0.15 euros to EUR 31.80/MWh. Residential demand increased this week, though analysts expect it to ease next week as temperatures stabilise. EU gas storage remains at 83.1% of capacity, compared with 95% last year, as inventories begin seasonal drawdowns. Despite ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, overall European storage remains sufficient for winter.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 17h04 BST – €31.80/MWh, up 1.04%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures fell sharply, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at CNY 782, down 2.07%. Sentiment weakened as traders sold into the decline, and mills limited buying to lower price levels. The removal of port fee concerns provided little support, and demand is expected to soften in the short term. However, blast furnace operations remain stable, keeping iron ore consumption relatively high and limiting further downside pressure.
SGX 62% iron ore at 16h39 BST – $105.70/mt, unchanged
Copper (LME)
Copper prices retreated over 2% as renewed U.S.–China trade friction and softer demand expectations weighed on sentiment. The pullback follows recent multi-month highs, with traders taking profits amid uncertainty over supply tightness. Weaker Chinese industrial activity and growing scepticism toward earlier bullish deficit forecasts also pressured prices.
LME 3-month copper at 16h57 BST – $10,594/mt, down 2.12%
The day closed with a broadly softer tone across commodities. Energy markets remain volatile as traders balance geopolitical risks against weaker fundamentals, while metals consolidated recent gains amid growing concerns over global trade and industrial demand.
