13th October 2025
_Commodity markets were mixed today. Oil recovered modestly on improved U.S.–China sentiment, while LNG softened on ample storage, iron ore firmed on tight supply, and copper steadied near multi-year highs._
*Coal*
Coal prices extended their decline today, with moderate losses across indices compounded by sharper drops in European gas, where shorter-dated contracts fell around 2.5%. The weaker gas market added to bearish sentiment, while slightly better offers in both the prompt physical Newcastle and DES ARA markets further pressured the swaps lower.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices rose in early trading after President Trump softened his tone toward China, two days after threatening 100% tariffs on imports from Beijing. Brent crude gained 1.6% to USD 63.71/bbl after losing 4% last week. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the key uncertainty is whether the tariffs will be implemented or used as negotiating leverage. Chinese refinery runs increased in September, lifting import volumes, though gains remain capped by easing geopolitical risk after Israel and Hamas agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire and hostage exchange. Despite the rebound, sentiment remains fragile. OPEC+ raised output by 630,000 bpd in September, heightening fears of oversupply later this year. Markets are also watching U.S. moves to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles, a factor that could increase geopolitical tension across OPEC+ producers.
_Spot Brent at 17h10 BST – $63.36/bll, up 1%_
*European LNG*
European gas prices slipped below EUR 32/MWh from last week’s six-week high of EUR 33.3, as strong inventories outweighed winter demand expectations. EU storage stands at 82.9% capacity, led by Italy at 93%, France at 92.5%, and Germany at 76.2%. Forecasts show temperatures 2°C below normal across France and Germany by mid-October, which could lift heating demand. Meanwhile, Russia’s largest strikes on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure since the war began raised risks of temporary supply disruption. Looking longer term, global LNG capacity is projected to expand by 60% by 2030—half from the U.S.—which could result in persistent oversupply and weigh on prices in both Europe and Asia.
_Dutch TTF Gas at 17h10 BST – €31.36/MWh, down 2.51%_
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures traded in a wide range before closing firmer. The most-traded I2601 contract settled at CNY 804.5, up 1.13% week on week. In Shandong, PB fines traded at CNY 795–798/mt, while Tangshan prices were slightly higher at CNY 800–805/mt. Trading activity was thin as steel mills remained cautious.
Supply tightened last week, with global iron ore shipments down nearly 20% week on week to 28.62 million mt and China arrivals down over 30% to 20.89 million mt. Price volatility increased amid tariff-related news and higher port dues, though firm downstream demand continues to support prices. Market attention now shifts to steel mill margins and their impact on hot metal output.
_Spot SGX 62% iron oreat 16h35 BST – $107.10/mt, down 0.28% _
*Copper (LME)*
Copper briefly touched USD 11,000/mt on 9 October—its third time ever at that level—before easing on renewed tariff concerns between the U.S. and China. The rally, driven by mine disruptions and a weaker dollar, brought prices close to the May 2024 record of USD 11,104.50.
Analysts remain split on the outlook. ING expects gains to rely on stronger Chinese demand, while BNP Paribas sees a balanced market next year. The International Copper Study Group projects a 178,000-ton surplus in 2025 turning to a 150,000-ton deficit by 2026. Combined inventories across LME, SHFE, and Comex total about 556,000 tons, with SHFE stocks near 110,000 tons—up since April but still 60% below February levels.
_LME 3-month copper at 17h06 BST – $10,842.50/mt, up 3.13% ]_
_Oil’s rebound and firm iron ore trading contrasted with continued softness in European gas. Copper held near record levels amid tight supply expectations, leaving commodity markets cautiously balanced between geopolitical risk, policy uncertainty, and uneven demand signals._
