10th October 2025
Commodity markets traded with a mixed tone today. Energy softened as geopolitical risk premiums eased, while LNG and iron ore prices held steady, and copper extended its breakout rally.
Coal
API2 swaps extended losses today, pressured by pronounced weakness in energy markets. European gas slipped about 1.5%, while front-month Brent crude dropped nearly 4% after the Gaza ceasefire announcement weighed on risk premiums. The physical Newcastle market was marginally softer, though NEWC swaps closed the session little changed.
Brent Crude
Oil prices declined, adding to the previous session’s 1.6% loss, as geopolitical risk premiums faded following the agreement of the first phase of a peace plan between Israel and Hamas. The deal includes a ceasefire, partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of hostages in exchange for prisoners. A smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output hike announced on Sunday helped temper oversupply concerns, but investors remain wary that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could weigh on demand from the world’s largest crude consumer.
Spot Brent at 16h52 BST – $63.12/bll, down 3.25%
European LNG
Dutch TTF futures slipped to EUR 32.1/MWh from EUR 33.3 on 7 October, with ample EU storage offsetting firmer demand expectations. Inventories stand at 82.9% of capacity, led by Italy at 93%, France at 92.5%, and Germany at 76.2%. This strong position has eased winter supply concerns, though colder weather forecasts and Russian attacks on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure add uncertainty. Looking ahead, a projected 60% increase in global liquefaction capacity by 2030, half of which is expected from the U.S., raises the prospect of structural oversupply and sustained price pressure.
Dutch TTF Gas – 16h50 BST – €31.91/MWh, down 1.69%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures opened stronger but drifted lower before closing firmer, with the most-traded I2601 contract at CNY 795, up 1.02% day-on-day. Average hot metal production stayed rangebound, offering limited influence on pricing. Post-holiday, Liaoning concentrates remained stable at CNY 740–750/mt (66% wet basis, ex-factory, excluding tax). Domestic supply remains tight, and producers are reluctant to discount, while steel mills purchase selectively, keeping spot trade subdued. Futures strength could support local concentrate prices short term, though overall demand remains the key driver.
SGX 62% iron ore at 16h38 BST – $106.50/mt, down 0.05%
Copper (LME)
Copper broke out of its extended consolidation, advancing toward the 2024 peak near USD 11,100/mt. Analysts see support at USD 10,590 as key to maintaining the uptrend, with targets at USD 11,470 and USD 11,920 if momentum holds. In the physical market, Chinese buyers have rejected Codelco’s proposal to maintain its USD 88/mt premium on cathode deliveries, a benchmark unchanged since 2019, reflecting pushback amid strong price gains. China remains Codelco’s largest market, and the negotiation outcome could influence physical trade terms going forward.
LME 3-month copper at 16h44 BST – $10,535.50, down 3.34%
Chrome
South Africa is weighing the introduction of a 25% export tax on chrome ore to support its struggling ferrochrome sector, according to foreign media reports. The draft growth strategy outlines the tariff as a tool to keep domestic chrome prices lower, while also proposing preferential power tariffs for ferrochrome producers. The plan targets 3.5% economic growth by 2030 alongside higher fixed asset investment.
The country controls more than 70% of global chromite reserves, the key input for ferrochrome used in stainless steel. Yet escalating electricity costs have forced closures of around 14 smelters in recent years, cutting some 350,000 jobs across the supply chain and threatening as many as 250,000 more. Glencore, through its joint venture with Merafe Resources, recently announced layoffs at its Rustenburg facility, highlighting the industry’s ongoing challenges.
South African Chrome Ore (Cr2O3 40%-42%) CIF China – $282/mt
South African Chrome Ore Lump (Cr2O3 min38%) CIF China – $252.50/mt
Energy markets softened as easing geopolitical risks and firm inventories weighed on sentiment, while iron ore showed resilience on futures strength. Copper’s breakout highlighted supply-demand tightness and speculative momentum, keeping metals on firmer ground compared with energy markets.
