9th October 2025
Commodity markets were mixed today, with energy easing on softer fundamentals, while metals held firm on supportive supply dynamics.
Coal
NEWC swaps found some support today even as the physical Newcastle market stayed broadly stable. API2 edged lower, pressured by moderate declines of around 1% in European gas and oil. Physical DES ARA was quiet, holding steady and offering little direction.
Brent Crude
Oil traded within a narrow range before slipping in afternoon trade, pressured by easing Middle East risk and rising U.S. stockpiles. Brent fell 0.5% to USD 65.89/bbl and WTI 0.6% to USD 61.67/bbl. Reports of Israel and Hamas agreeing to the first stage of a U.S.-brokered peace plan reduced geopolitical premiums, while U.S. inventories rose for a second week, signalling softer demand. Oil is down around 10% year-to-date, with analysts highlighting bearish sentiment and questioning whether a USD 60 floor in Brent is sufficient to support balance. Rising stockpiles outside core hubs are expected to limit extreme price corrections but keep pressure on sentiment.
Spot Brent at 16h45 BST – USD 65.89/bbl, down 0.54%
European LNG
Dutch TTF futures retreated today, after touching a six-week high on 7 October. Healthy storage, at 82.9% EU-wide, continues to cap upside despite colder weather forecasts and renewed geopolitical risk. Italy stands at 93%, France at 92.5%, and Germany at 76.2%, easing near-term concerns over winter supply. Russia’s largest strikes on Ukraine’s gas system since the war began have added risk of disruptions, but abundant LNG supply and expectations of oversupply by 2030, with half the growth from the U.S., remain strong bearish factors. Traders expect demand growth to lag in both Asia and Europe.
Dutch TTF Gas at 16h45 BST – EUR 32.38/MWh, down 0.93%
Iron Ore
During China’s National Day holiday, Singapore swaps provided the key signal, rising slightly as weaker U.S. jobs data boosted Fed rate cut expectations. The Platts 62% index rose USD 0.30, while domestic Chinese port activity remained muted due to prior stockpiling and reduced trading. On the first session post-holiday, futures held firm, with spot prices rising CNY 5–10/mt. PB fines at Qingdao traded near CNY 780–790/mt. With steel mills expected to restock and supportive macro policy in China, near-term sentiment is constructive. However, supply-demand imbalances are seen building, which may weigh on prices longer term.
SGX 62% iron ore at 16h10 BST – USD 105.70/mt, up 0.38%
Copper (LME)
Copper surged to USD 11,000/mt, its highest in over 16 months, driven by mine disruptions and speculative inflows. Three-month LME copper climbed 3.1% intraday before easing again. Prices are more than 20% higher this year, underpinned by strong demand, a weaker dollar, and easing rates. Recent incidents, including a mudslide at Grasberg in Indonesia, have further tightened the supply outlook and fuelled bullish momentum.
LME 3-month copper at 16h40 BST – USD 10,850.50/mt, up 1.79%
Oil eased as inventories climbed, gas fell back on strong storage, and iron ore stayed resilient on Chinese restocking expectations. Copper’s rally past USD 11,000 underscored market sensitivity to supply shocks, keeping metals in sharp contrast to the subdued tone across energy markets.
