8th October 2025
Energy markets traded unevenly today, with coal prices leading the weakness, gas extending losses, and oil showing renewed volatility.
Coal
Coal prices extended declines today, with sharper losses in both API2 and NEWC. Softer European gas, with the front month down nearly 2%, added further pressure to coal swaps. Brent crude was more volatile, with the front month contract gaining 1.5%. In the physical market, DES ARA weakened again, while Newcastle held relatively steady.
Brent Crude
Oil prices firmed as industry data showed further declines in crude stocks at the key Cushing hub, while OPEC+ signalled only a modest output increase, easing fears of oversupply. EIA data for the week ending 26 September placed Cushing inventories at 23.47 million barrels, an unusually low level that heightens market sensitivity to regional disruptions. Russian crude shipments remain close to a 16-month high, though Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted refining capacity, forcing rerouting of exports. Urals crude has widened its discount to Dated Brent to USD 2.00–2.50 per barrel, double the levels seen in July and August. This may attract increased purchases from Indian refiners. However, India’s September crude imports from Russia fell by about 100,000 bpd as refiners diversified supply in the context of U.S.–India trade discussions and ongoing U.S. pressure on Russian imports.
Spot Brent at16h40 BST – $66.38/bll, up 1.42%
European LNG
Dutch TTF futures eased today, pausing a two-day rally, as robust storage offset stronger demand expectations. EU storage stands at 82.9%, with Italy at 93%, France at 92.5%, and Germany at 76.2%, helping reduce winter supply risks. Forecasts of colder mid-October weather, with temperatures in France and Germany expected to fall 2°C below seasonal norms, point to higher heating demand. Meanwhile, Russia’s largest strikes to date on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure have raised concerns over disruption and the potential for higher European exports eastward. Still, abundant LNG supplies globally are expected to cap significant upside, with liquefaction capacity projected to rise 60% by 2030, half from the U.S. Traders see demand growth lagging, which could pressure prices lower in both Asia and Europe.
Dutch TTF Gas at 16h40 BST – €32.68/MWh, down 2.12%
Copper (LME)
The International Copper Study Group now projects the global refined copper market to swing into a deficit of 150,000 tonnes in 2026, compared with its earlier forecast of a 209,000-tonne surplus. The revision reflects slower production growth following operational setbacks in Indonesia, Chile, and Congo. These disruptions pushed copper to a 16-month high, with the ICSG lowering its 2025 mine production growth outlook to 1.4%, down from April’s 2.3%. As a result, the 2025 refined copper surplus is now expected at 178,000 tonnes, compared with 289,000 tonnes previously.
_LME 3-month copper at 16h36 BST – $10,675.50, down 0.81%
Coal swaps and physical DES ARA remained under pressure, while Newcastle held steadier. Gas eased further, but Brent crude’s rebound highlighted continued instability across the energy complex.
