7th October 2025
Commodity markets traded mixed today, with oil easing on renewed supply concerns, gas briefly spiking on weather and geopolitical risks, and gold and copper holding firmer despite currency headwinds.
Coal
Coal swaps extended losses today, with all indices moving lower throughout the session. European gas and oil markets were more subdued, with gas edging slightly higher and oil finishing near unchanged. In the physical market, Newcastle remained stable, while DES ARA showed a softer tone with slightly better offers.
Gold
Gold futures broke above USD 4,000 per ounce for the first time, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The metal has surged 52% year-to-date, supported by expectations of rate cuts, sustained central bank buying, ETF inflows, political uncertainty, and a weaker dollar. The shutdown, now in its seventh day, has delayed key U.S. economic data, leaving markets to rely on secondary indicators to anticipate Fed policy.
Political instability in France and Japan added further pressure to global currency and bond markets, intensifying the flight to safety. Investors are now pricing in a 25 bps Fed cut this month, followed by another in December. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 11th consecutive month in September, underscoring resilient central bank demand.
Spot Gold at 17h00 BST – $3966.38/oz, up 0.07%
Brent Crude
Brent futures slipped to USD 65.10 per barrel after two days of gains, as traders balanced a modest OPEC+ supply increase against broader worries about oversupply and weak demand. Rising Venezuelan shipments, the restart of Kurdish flows via Turkey, and unsold Middle Eastern cargoes for November weighed on sentiment. Some support came from reports that a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Kirishi refinery forced the shutdown of its main distillation unit.
Spot Brent at 17h02 BST – USD 65.24/bll, down0.35%
European LNG
European gas futures hit a six-week high of EUR 33.60 in morning trade, extending Monday’s 5.3% rally, before paring gains later in the session. Forecasts of below-normal mid-October temperatures in France and Germany, together with weaker renewable generation, pointed to stronger heating demand. Added pressure came from Russia’s largest attacks yet on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, raising the prospect of increased EU gas exports eastward. However, storage levels remain strong, with EU capacity at 82.8% and leading markets above 90%.
Dutch TTF Gas at 17h02 BST – EUR33.38/MWh, up 0.80%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices edged higher as mine disruptions supported sentiment despite a firm US dollar limiting upside. Analysts expect global copper supply to shrink by nearly 600,000 tonnes through 2026, with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America lifting their forecasts accordingly. Still, dollar strength and muted Chinese demand during the Golden Week holiday have kept trading subdued. Other base metals remain uneven as the market digests supply risks and macro uncertainty.
LME 3-month copper at 16h55 BST – USD 10,723/mt, up 0.93%
Energy markets remain torn between new supply inflows and geopolitical risks, while gas is supported by weather-driven demand and storage resilience. Copper continues to trade in a tight range, reflecting the push and pull of structural supply shortages against short-term currency and demand pressures.
