6th October 2025
Commodity markets traded with mixed direction today, as oil found support from OPEC+ restraint, European gas rallied on weather and geopolitical risks, while copper eased under currency pressure despite ongoing supply concerns.
Coal
The energy complex opened stronger, with European gas climbing over 3% and oil also advancing, which briefly lifted coal swaps. API2 gained more than $1 early in the session before prices across indices reversed, leaving markets moderately lower by the close. This came despite continued gains in gas, with near-term contracts up around 5%, and Brent crude finishing close to 2% higher.
Brent Crude
Oil prices gained after OPEC+ approved only a modest production hike, calming fears of a larger increase. The group agreed to add 137,000 barrels per day, far below the figures speculated ahead of the decision. Despite today’s move higher, Brent remains under pressure, having fallen 8% last week, with analysts expecting further downside through 2026 unless OPEC+ shifts strategy or sanctions cut Russian and Iranian exports. The IEA projects a record surplus for 2026, and Wall Street forecasts remain tilted toward lower prices.
Spot Brent at 16h30 BST – $65.58/bbl, up 1.68%
European LNG
European gas futures jumped more than 5%, their sharpest daily rise since mid-June, driven by forecasts of colder-than-average weather in France and Germany from mid-October. Expectations of lower renewable generation added to demand concerns, while Russia’s largest attacks on Ukraine’s gas network since the war began heightened risk sentiment. Despite this, EU storage remains strong at 82.8% capacity, with Italy and France above 90% and Germany at 76.3%, giving the bloc a solid buffer heading into winter.
Dutch TTF Gas at 16h30 BST – €33.22/MWh, up 5.7%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices edged lower, reversing part of last week’s rally. A stronger US dollar, lifted by political developments in France and Japan, pressured the market. Supply concerns remain elevated following deadly disruptions at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine, the world’s second-largest copper operation, where mudslides forced output cuts and left seven workers confirmed dead. The force majeure declared last month continues to cloud the supply outlook, keeping the market on edge despite today’s price slip.
LME 3-month copper at 16h30 BST – $10,677/mt, down 0.29%
Energy markets remain finely balanced between supply restraint and demand uncertainty, gas is again vulnerable to both weather and geopolitics, while copper reflects a tug-of-war between tighter fundamentals and currency headwinds.
