3rd October 2025
_Commodity markets traded with mixed momentum today, as energy prices grappled with persistent downside drivers while copper extended its rally on supply and macroeconomic tailwinds._
*Coal*
Market activity was subdued, with limited volumes and little movement in NEWC swaps. API2 swaps eased further despite a modest recovery in European gas and oil, which held relatively steady compared to recent sessions. The physical Newcastle market showed firmer support than earlier in the week, lending some relative strength to NEWC swaps against other indices.
*Brent Crude*
Crude oil prices posted gains on the day but remain sharply lower on the week, with Brent down 8.3% since Monday. Analysts expect further weakness into the final quarter of 2025, as the prospect of increased OPEC+ supply, refinery maintenance, and seasonal demand softness weigh on fundamentals. Without a stronger recovery, Brent is set to close at its lowest level since late May, with stock builds in the US and elsewhere adding to pressure.
_Spot Brent at 16h45 BST – $64.64/bbl, up 0.75%_
*European LNG*
European gas futures continued to hover between €31 and €33/MWh, more than 40% below February’s two-year highs. Strong storage injections — with EU inventories averaging 82.3% — have eased winter concerns, while weaker Asian demand has diverted LNG flows toward Europe. Although volatility has returned to pre-2022 levels, geopolitical risks remain, with NATO-Russia tensions and potential sanctions still capable of disrupting supply. Looking ahead, global liquefaction capacity is projected to climb 60% by 2030, largely driven by US projects, raising the risk of structural oversupply.
_Dutch TTF Gas at 16h47 BST – €31.48/MWh, up 1.46%_
*Copper (LME)*
Copper climbed to its highest level in more than a year, supported by supply disruptions and renewed expectations of lower US interest rates. LME benchmark futures broke above USD 10,500/mt for the first time since May 2024, with Freeport-McMoRan’s force majeure at Grasberg adding to a series of setbacks across key producing regions. On the macro side, weaker US private payrolls reinforced the case for rate cuts, fuelling optimism for industrial demand, especially as government data may be delayed by the shutdown.
_LME 3-month copper at 16h40 BST – $10,714/mt, up 2.42%_
_Overall, crude oil remains under pressure from oversupply risks, gas prices are capped by strong inventories and structural headwinds, while copper’s rally underscores the market’s sensitivity to supply shocks and shifting monetary policy expectations._
