2nd October 2025
_Commodity markets traded under pressure today, with energy prices weighed by supply dynamics and macroeconomic concerns, while base metals found support from tightening fundamentals._
*Coal*
Moderate weakness was seen today, with slightly improved offers in the physical DES ARA market, while Newcastle remained stable. European gas eased marginally but held broadly steady, and Brent crude extended losses, falling 1.5% to trade below $65/mt.
*Brent Crude*
Brent extended its losing streak to a fourth session, pressured by oversupply concerns and renewed uncertainty over the global economy following a U.S. government shutdown. Expectations of increased OPEC+ output also weighed on prices, with sources suggesting the group may raise production by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in November—three times the October increase—as Saudi Arabia looks to defend market share. Separately, U.S. officials confirmed plans to provide Ukraine with intelligence support for long-range strikes on Russian energy assets, targeting refineries, pipelines, and infrastructure to curb Moscow’s oil revenue. In Asia, September factory activity contracted across key economies, fuelling demand worries. The U.S. shutdown has also delayed key economic data releases, adding to downward pressure.
_Spot Brent at 16h25 BST – $64.55/bll, down 1.22%_
*European LNG*
Europe recorded its highest-ever LNG imports in September, Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data showed. Since April, the bloc has secured 70 bcm of LNG, with September inflows from terminals into the EU grid reaching 11.4 bcm—up 18% from August and 44% year on year. Meanwhile, Greenpeace activists blocked LNG carriers at Belgium’s Fluxys terminal, a major entry point for Russian cargoes that handles roughly a quarter of Europe’s Russian LNG imports.
_Dutch TTF Gas at 16h30 BST – €31.36/MWh, down 0.23%_
*Copper (LME)*
Copper advanced on persistent supply risks linked to major producer disruptions. Three-month LME copper rose 0.4% to USD 10,307 per tonne in open outcry trading. Chile’s August output fell 9.9% year on year—the sharpest drop since 2023—after July’s fatal accident at Codelco’s El Teniente mine. Further tightness looms following last month’s mudslide that halted operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine. Analysts at Sucden Financial warned that thin participation from Chinese buyers during the holiday period may heighten volatility, though sentiment appears skewed upward.
_LME 3-month copper at 16h54 BST – $10,465/mt, up 1.06%
_Overall, sentiment remains cautious across markets, with energy still vulnerable to oversupply risks and economic headwinds, while copper’s gains highlight ongoing supply challenges in the metals sector._
