15th October 2025
Commodity markets traded with mixed direction today as volatility returned across several sectors. Coal rallied sharply despite softer energy benchmarks, oil steadied after recent losses, gas prices held firm on solid storage, iron ore weakened further, and copper regained some ground on improved sentiment in metals.
Coal
Coal markets saw heightened volatility today, with sharp gains across API2 and API4 despite mild softness in European gas and continued pressure on oil prices. Physical DES ARA values also firmed slightly, while the Newcastle market remained comparatively stable, limiting upside in NEWC swaps relative to the European indices.
Brent Crude
Oil prices steadied after closing at five-month lows, as investors weighed escalating U.S.–China trade tensions and a bearish outlook from the International Energy Agency. The trade dispute between the world’s two largest oil consumers has intensified, with both sides imposing new port fees on vessels carrying cargo between them—raising concerns over potential disruptions to global shipping routes and crude flows. Meanwhile, the IEA warned of a record surplus in 2026, projecting supply to exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day, driven by higher output from OPEC+ and other producers against persistently weak consumption.
Spot Brent at 16h30 BST – $62.00/bll, down 0.39%
European LNG
European natural gas futures fell further as strong storage levels continued to offset rising heating demand. EU inventories remain robust at 82.9% capacity, led by Italy at 93%, France at 92.5%, and Germany at 76.2%. Temperatures are forecast to fall about 2°C below seasonal norms across France and Germany in mid-October, which could lift short-term demand. At the same time, Russian strikes on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure have raised concerns over winter supply security and higher European re-exports to Ukraine. Looking ahead, traders remain wary of oversupply, with global LNG capacity set to expand 60% by 2030—half of that from the U.S.—pressuring prices in both Europe and Asia.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 16h30 BST – €31.84/MWh, up 0.2%
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices extended losses, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at CNY 776.5, down 1.46% day-on-day. Trading activity was subdued as steel mills purchased selectively and overall market liquidity remained thin. Declining steel margins and tighter environmental controls in some regions are expected to reduce hot metal output slightly next week, keeping short-term sentiment weak. However, expectations surrounding a key policy meeting in late October have provided some optimism that prices could stabilise or rebound modestly in the near term.
SGX 62% iron ore at 16h30 BST – $105.30/mt, down 0.33%
Copper (LME)
Copper rebounded after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled another rate cut this month, while traders at the industry’s largest annual conference suggested USD 12,000/mt could soon be tested. The move followed a sharp pullback last week when renewed U.S.–China trade friction briefly derailed the rally. Meanwhile, Japan, Spain, and South Korea jointly warned of unsustainably low treatment and refining charges, highlighting the strain on both miners and smelters amid tight concentrate supply and growing Chinese smelting capacity. Some Chinese smelters have reportedly agreed to process Chilean material at zero fees, underscoring severe market pressure.
LME 3-month copper at 16h42 BST $10,633/mt, up 0.45%
