16th October 2025
Commodity markets traded with a firmer tone today, led by renewed strength in coal while broader energy prices held steady. Sentiment improved slightly across the complex, supported by resilient demand signals and more stable trading conditions.
Coal
Coal prices extended yesterday’s gains, with sections of the API2 curve rising by nearly USD 3 on the day and other indices posting smaller increases as bullish sentiment persisted. European gas prices saw modest support, while oil was relatively steady, with front-month Brent crude ending close to unchanged. The physical Newcastle market also remained stable.
Brent Crude
Brent rebounded from a five-month low after U.S. President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil purchases—a move that could tighten global supply. No timeline or official confirmation has been issued by New Delhi. India and China have both taken advantage of discounted Russian crude under the G7 price cap framework, allowing flows to continue while limiting Moscow’s revenue.
U.S. officials have criticised Indian refiners for reselling refined Russian products to Europe, while trade tensions between Washington and New Delhi persist. India’s trade secretary said the country could increase oil imports from the U.S. by USD 15 billion, though Russian barrels still account for roughly 34% of India’s imports, according to Kpler data. Some refiners have begun settling Russian crude purchases in yuan rather than U.S. dollars.
Spot Brent at 16h35 BST – $61.78/bll, down 0.21%
European LNG
European gas futures rose more than 2% intraday after renewed Russian strikes on Ukraine’s gas network sharply reduced output. The attacks have cut nearly 60% of Ukraine’s gas production this month, forcing DTEK to suspend operations in Poltava and damaging Naftogaz infrastructure. The escalation comes as heating demand picks up and inventories dip below seasonal norms. EU storage stands at 83% capacity, down from 93.2% a year ago. LNG imports and Norwegian pipeline flows are helping offset lost volumes, while weaker Chinese offtake from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project is freeing supply for Europe.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 16h35 BST – €32.32/MWh, up 1.55%
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices weakened again, with the I2601 contract closing at CNY 773, down 0.9%. Apparent demand for major steel products improved post-holiday, while inventories declined slightly, but mill margins have contracted sharply, reinforcing negative sentiment. Traders remain cautious ahead of next week’s key policy meeting, with expectations that hot metal output will fall further in the short term, keeping iron ore prices subdued.
Spot SGX 62% iron ore at 16h00 BST – $105.25/mt, down 0.28%
Copper (LME)
Copper’s sustained strength is prompting Chinese smelters to redirect shipments abroad to capture near-record LME prices, as higher domestic costs deter local buyers. Two major smelters reportedly plan to ship up to 25,000 tons of spot material to LME-approved warehouses in Asia in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan announced plans to abandon the industry’s long-standing benchmark pricing system for 2026, opting for individual supply contracts instead. The move follows a collapse in processing fees, which have reached record lows and may turn negative next year, threatening to upend global copper trade dynamics.
LME 3-month copper at 16h25 BST – $10,633/mt, down 0.04%
The day closed with coal maintaining upward momentum and oil and gas finding equilibrium after recent volatility. Overall, markets remain cautiously optimistic, with steady fundamentals and measured risk sentiment guiding trade into the week’s end.
