15th April 2025
*Coal*
Support for coal prices continued on Tuesday, with all major indices posting moderate gains. API2 swaps saw strength across the curve, despite slightly weaker European gas prices. Notably, the volatility that characterised recent sessions eased, with market sentiment remaining constructive. Physical Newcastle coal for May 2025 traded around $2 lower than Monday’s level, but this had little impact on swaps, which held firm, particularly on longer-dated contracts. The broader energy complex, including stabilised oil and firmer U.S. gas, helped underpin coal pricing.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as the International Energy Agency (IEA) joined OPEC and the EIA in cutting its 2025 demand-growth forecast due to slower global growth, heightened by the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff war. The IEA warned that the bulk of the demand weakness is likely to emerge in the coming months. Despite a temporary pause on tariffs for tech-related imports, sentiment remains fragile. Supply-side pressures are also in focus, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases and the potential for more Iranian crude to return to market amid renewed nuclear talks. June Brent was last down 0.27% at $64.70 (15h20 BST).
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European gas futures showed a modest rebound, trading just above €34/MWh after last week’s 8% decline. The partial recovery followed relief from the US’s temporary tariff exemptions on select Chinese tech imports, calming recession fears. However, bearish fundamentals persist: warmer and windier weather is expected to increase storage injections and reduce power-sector demand. European storage remains low at just over 35% full. EU states recently approved flexibility in meeting the 90% storage target, allowing a 10-point deviation under adverse conditions. Dutch TTF was down 0.2% to €34.56/MWh at 15h39 BST.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures remained firm on Tuesday. The most-traded DCE contract (I2509) closed up nearly 1% at CNY713. Transaction sentiment was moderate, with traders selling in line with market trends while steel mills remained cautious, with fewer inquiries and some issuing tenders. In Shandong, PB fines traded between 765–770 yuan/mt, up 1–6 yuan/mt on the day. Meanwhile, SGX May TSI 62% iron ore fines were marginally softer, down 0.35% at $98.40 (15h32 BST), as demand concerns from the ongoing US-China trade row linger.
*Copper*
Copper prices dipped amid subdued Chinese demand indicators. Although March imports rose month-on-month, they were down 1.4% year-on-year, with Q1 imports off 5.2%. The recent spike in copper prices, driven by tariff fears, likely suppressed buying. Prices had peaked mid-March near $10,047/ton before falling sharply post-tariff announcement. A temporary lift came as the US excluded tech goods from tariffs and hinted at pausing auto import levies. Nonetheless, fresh national security investigations into semiconductor and pharma imports kept markets on edge. LME 3-month copper fell 0.51% to $9,148/ton (15h29 BST), while US futures were down 0.66% at $4.61/lb, reflecting domestic supply concerns from potential metal-specific tariffs.
