14th April 2025
*Coal*
API2 coal swaps saw support across the curve today, with most contracts rising by over $1. The gains were driven in part by stronger European gas prices, particularly at the front end, where contracts were up around 3%. This uptick in gas added bullish sentiment across the broader energy complex and encouraged buying interest in coal.
In contrast, physical Newcastle coal for May 2025 loading traded slightly lower than last week, putting some downward pressure on nearby NEWC swaps. As a result, short-dated NEWC contracts ended the day marginally lower. However, strength in the broader energy market helped lift the longer-dated NEWC swaps, which moved higher in line with API2 and gas.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices edged higher on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and a surge in Chinese crude imports, which hit 12.1 million barrels per day in March — the highest since August 2023, driven in part by increased Iranian supply. However, gains were capped by concerns over slower global growth stemming from escalating U.S. tariffs. China’s economy, facing 145% U.S. tariffs on its exports, may see dampened fuel demand ahead. OPEC, in its latest monthly report, cut its 2025 global demand growth forecast to 1.3 million barrels per day from 1.45 million, citing tariff-driven headwinds.
Adding to the cautious tone, Goldman Sachs revised down its 2025–2026 oil price forecasts, pointing to softer demand, especially for petrochemical feedstocks. Both WTI and Brent are down roughly $10 so far this month.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas prices rose modestly, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract up 1.3% to €33.89/MWh, but still below the €35 mark. Market sentiment remains fragile as the region contends with low storage levels following a harsh winter. EU gas reserves are just 35.3% full, well below last year’s levels, keeping pressure on restocking efforts. Despite the recent uptick, underlying bearish indicators—including uncertain LNG flows due to U.S.-China tensions—are limiting upward momentum.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures posted modest gains, buoyed by improved sentiment following stronger-than-expected March lending data in China, which signalled upcoming stimulus to support growth amid tariff-related pressure. On the DCE, the most-traded September contract (I2509) closed at CNY 706, up 0.28%. Activity was subdued, with cautious buying from steel mills and limited speculative trading. On the Singapore Exchange, May 62% fines (SZZFK5) settled at $97.75/ton as of 15:32 BST.
*Copper*
Copper prices extended their rebound, supported by expectations of Chinese stimulus and selective U.S. tariff exemptions, which improved investor risk sentiment. LME three-month copper rose 0.64% to $9,213.50/ton by 15:30 BST. Copper has climbed 14% from last week’s multi-month low of $8,105, as markets assess the evolving trade picture. While exemptions on electronics like smartphones and computers provided relief, President Trump indicated new semiconductor tariffs will be announced this week, keeping trade risks firmly in play.
