11th April 2025
*Coal*
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude dipped 0.25% to $63.19 (June contract) by 15:30 BST, as escalating US-China trade tensions undermined earlier optimism. After pausing tariffs on most countries for 90 days, President Trump raised levies on Chinese imports to 145%, prompting China to retaliate with 125% tariffs on US goods. The tariff battle threatens global trade flows and raises stagflation risks, cutting into oil demand. The EIA cut its 2025 demand growth forecast to 0.9 million bpd from 1.3 million, while OPEC+ is still set to add 411,000 bpd in May. Rising non-OPEC supply and expectations for climbing inventories are adding to bearish sentiment.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
TTF gas fell 0.42% to €33.22/MWh by 15:32 BST, capping a 7% weekly loss and extending a three-week slide to near seven-month lows. Prices initially rose on relief over the US tariff pause, but fresh tensions with China and storage concerns weighed. European gas sites ended winter nearly two-thirds empty, and despite early injections outpacing the five-year average, refilling will be challenging. EU countries are debating a 10% flexibility on the 90% winter storage target. Meanwhile, LNG market uncertainty persists amid the US-China standoff and unclear Russian supply dynamics.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures on the DCE recovered after early losses, with the I2509 contract closing up 0.71% at 708. Market activity was moderate, with reduced steel mill inquiries ahead of the weekend. Sentiment improved slightly following the temporary easing of tariffs, though price volatility remains likely. SGX TSI 62% Fe futures for May rose 0.26% to $97.45.
*Copper*
Copper was mixed but on track for a weekly gain. LME 3-month copper rose 1.23% to $9,104 by 15:31 BST, as a weaker dollar and a temporary US tariff pause supported sentiment. US futures climbed above $4.40/lb, rebounding from $4.05/lb earlier in the week. While Trump suspended duties on most countries, the escalation with China and potential copper-specific tariffs keep pressure on the market. Supply concerns and limited US smelting capacity have widened the premium of US futures over the LME. Copper remains 20% below its March 26 high of $5.30/lb.
