*Coal*
Volatility persisted across energy and equity markets today, driven by the delayed implementation of US tariffs announced late yesterday. European gas prices spiked over 5% early on, sparking buying interest in coal swaps, but later reversed to close around 1% lower. Brent crude also remained volatile, retreating sharply from its earlier gains following the tariff pause. In physical markets, Newcastle coal for July 2025 loading traded at a more moderate discount to paper levels.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude fell sharply on Thursday, down 3.85% to $62.98 (June contract, 16h16 BST), reversing much of the previous session’s gains. Oil prices had rallied after President Trump paused tariff hikes for most countries, but sentiment quickly turned as he imposed a 125% tariff on Chinese goods, escalating tensions with the world’s top oil importer. The renewed trade friction raised fears of weaker global fuel demand. Compounding bearish sentiment, OPEC+ confirmed an accelerated output increase, and the Keystone pipeline remains shut with no restart date after a spill in North Dakota.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas prices surged early on relief over a temporary 90-day pause in U.S. tariffs for most countries, but gains faded by late afternoon. Dutch TTF futures dropped to €33.16/MWh, down 0.54% by 16h10 BST, after briefly topping €35.85. Despite a bounce from seven-month lows, prices remain over 10% lower than pre-tariff levels. While storage injections are running above the five-year average, markets remain cautious amid lingering concerns over LNG flows and a challenging restocking season ahead.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures climbed amid improved sentiment following Trump’s tariff suspension for non-retaliating nations. DCE’s I2509 contract closed up 3.06% at 707. PB fines rose 20–25 yuan/mt across key regions like Shandong and Tangshan. Market activity was moderate, with steel mills buying on a needs basis. Despite slight weakness in HRC demand, ongoing inventory drawdowns and stronger policy expectations supported prices. SGX 62% Fe fines were marginally higher at $99.10 (+0.05%) as of 16h21 BST.
*Copper*
Copper extended its rebound, supported by improved sentiment after Trump paused most tariffs for 90 days. However, expectations of targeted copper tariffs and ongoing US-China tensions continue to cloud the outlook. US copper futures held above $4.30/lb, while LME three-month copper gained 5.02% to $9036/ton by 16h20 BST. The US premium widened as concerns grew over limited domestic smelting capacity. Despite Thursday’s rally, copper remains down 12% from its March 26 peak of $10,164.50.
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