16th April 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices eased slightly today after recent gains, with the NEWC swaps leading the decline. This weakness stood in contrast to broader energy markets, where European gas and Brent crude both climbed around 2%, buoyed by shifting sentiment around U.S.–China trade tensions. Despite the softness in swaps, physical markets remained steady, with Newcastle and DES ARA prices holding firm. Market volatility continues to ripple across the energy complex as participants react to evolving tariff developments.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices advanced over 2% today, buoyed by news that China may resume trade talks with the U.S. in an attempt to de-escalate their ongoing tariff conflict. Beijing has signaled a willingness to negotiate after imposing 84% tariffs in response to the U.S.’s 145% levy on Chinese exports. This optimism helped offset a bearish U.S. inventory report. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.4-million-barrel build in crude stocks last week, while EIA data confirmed a larger-than-expected 0.5-million-barrel increase. However, draws at Cushing and in fuel inventories softened the market’s reaction. Additional pressure remains on the supply side as OPEC+ output continues to climb and renewed progress in U.S.–Iran nuclear talks could result in increased Iranian exports. Brent June futures were last up 2.01% at $65.97 (15h51 BST).
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European gas futures staged a modest recovery, rising 2.52% to €35.15/MWh (16h00 BST), following a sharp 8% drop last week to a seven-month low. Sentiment improved after the U.S. temporarily exempted select Chinese tech imports from tariffs, easing fears of a global slowdown. Meanwhile, milder, windier conditions across Europe are expected to boost storage injections and reduce demand from power generators. Storage levels remain low at just over 35% capacity. EU policymakers have agreed to introduce flexibility into storage targets, allowing a deviation of up to 10 percentage points below the 90% mandate during adverse market conditions.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures weakened slightly amid subdued trading. The most-active DCE I2509 contract closed at CNY708, down 0.14%. Traders followed market prices while speculative activity declined. Steel mills maintained a cautious stance, only buying as needed. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 762–766 yuan/mt, down 3–5 yuan on the day, while Tangshan levels dipped marginally to around 775 yuan/mt. CISA estimated early April daily crude steel production at 2.79 million mt—up 3.4% MoM and 4% YoY. Despite near-term support, China Galaxy Futures noted concerns over softening steel demand and persistent global economic uncertainty. TSI, June 62% Fe iron ore fines on SGX were last seen at $97.25.
*Copper*
Copper prices eased as trade tensions between the U.S. and China resurfaced. President Trump has ordered an investigation into potential tariffs on critical minerals—many of which are heavily imported from China. Market sentiment was further rattled by fears that national security-based tariffs, previously applied to steel and aluminium, could soon extend to copper. Despite this, Citi analysts revised their 3-month copper target higher to $8,800/ton (from $8,000), citing resilient Chinese demand and tight scrap supply. Nevertheless, physical consumption and manufacturing are expected to weaken under current tariff regimes. LME 3-month copper rose 0.27% to $9,186.50 (15h59 BST), while U.S. futures slipped to $4.55/lb.
