17th April 2025
*Coal*
The downward momentum seen yesterday extended into today’s session, with most major commodity indices moderately lower, continuing to retrace gains made earlier in the week.Physical Newcastle cargoes for May 2025 loading traded more than $2 higher than Tuesday’s levels, though the NEWC swaps market showed little reaction, suggesting participants remain cautious despite signs of tightening fundamentals.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude futures rose for a second consecutive session, climbing over 2% to $67.20/bbl for the June contract. Prices were supported by fresh US sanctions on Iran, which now target vessels and even a Chinese independent refinery processing Iranian crude. The measures are expected to further limit Iranian oil exports and disrupt global supply chains.
Additional supply concerns emerged after OPEC+ confirmed updated compensation plans from members like Iraq and Kazakhstan, who previously exceeded output quotas. Despite these supply pressures, weaker demand forecasts from OPEC, the IEA, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan—driven by global economic uncertainty and trade tensions—are capping upside potential.
Still, the prospect of renewed US-China trade negotiations has boosted market sentiment, offering hope for stabilising demand in the months ahead. Brent is now set for its first weekly gain of the month, up more than 2% so far this week.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas futures posted modest gains, with Dutch TTF rising 0.46% to €35.56/MWh, continuing a tentative recovery after last week’s 8% drop to a seven-month low.
The rebound followed positive market sentiment after the US announced a temporary suspension of tariffs on some Chinese tech goods, reducing recession fears that had weighed heavily on gas prices.
Meanwhile, mild and windier weather across Europe is expected to improve storage injections and reduce power sector demand. Storage remains relatively low at just 35% full, and in a move to safeguard energy supply, EU states have agreed to flexible storage targets, allowing countries to fall 10 percentage points below the 90% goal under challenging conditions.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures saw mild losses, with the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s most-traded I2509 contract closing at CNY 707, down 0.07%. Markets opened higher but softened through the afternoon. Traders showed moderate selling interest, while steel mills remained cautious and largely sidelined, with only limited inquiries and spot purchases. Still, fundamentals remain supportive: rebar demand performed well, and inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline. At the same time, total iron ore inventories across SMM’s ten main ports fell by 2.18 million mt month-on-month, signalling continued strength in underlying demand. On SGX, June 62% Fe fines slipped 0.10% to $96.75/ton, reflecting the quiet trading tone.
*Copper*
Copper prices eased, weighed down by renewed trade policy concerns. The US is reportedly planning to pressure countries seeking tariff exemptions to reduce trade with China, raising alarms over potential disruptions to global copper demand. LME 3-month copper fell 0.52% to $9,162.50, while US copper futures slipped 0.76% to $4.63/lb. Despite some earlier strength from Chinese dip buying and scrap market tightness, broader investor sentiment remains cautious. With the US dollar ticking higher, commodities priced in USD also faced pressure from currency effects. Most other base metals, except tin, were flat or down in Thursday trading.
