22nd April 2025
Coal
The post-holiday market slide extended across the energy complex, with coal and gas prices moving lower. NEWC swaps were the weakest performers, weighed down by soft sentiment and bearish physical cues. A physical Newcastle cargo for June 2025 traded at a steep discount to paper, prompting further pressure on swaps. European gas also slumped, with shorter-dated contracts down around 4% by session end, dragging API2 coal swaps lower in tandem.
Brent Crude
Brent crude rebounded 1.06% to $66.98/bbl (June contract) by 15h10 BST, recovering from a sharp decline the previous session despite a firmer US dollar and ongoing market turbulence. The move was largely technical, as supply-side headwinds persist. OPEC+ is poised to reintroduce 411,000 bpd of production next month, with rising non-OPEC output adding to the mix. Meanwhile, demand prospects remain fragile amid global trade friction and recession risks. President Trump’s aggressive tariff stance—imposing 145% duties on Chinese imports—has invited retaliatory levies, weighing on global growth outlooks. Progress in US-Iran nuclear talks also raises the possibility of increased Iranian exports, adding further uncertainty. A recent survey indicated nearly a 50% chance of a US recession in the coming year, keeping oil market sentiment cautious.
Dutch TTF Gas
European gas prices declined sharply, with Dutch TTF futures falling 3.01% to €34.28/MWh by 15h30 BST. Despite recent global LNG supply issues, European imports remain above seasonal norms, aiding a steady rebuild in inventories, now at 37% full. The EU has introduced flexible gas storage rules, allowing members to fall up to 10 percentage points below the 90% target under adverse conditions. However, concerns remain around escalating global trade tensions after China warned countries supporting the US trade stance of potential retaliation. Europe’s gas inventories were severely depleted last winter due to increased heating demand and weak renewable energy output.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures held steady on Tuesday, with the DCE I2509 contract closing 0.21% higher at CNY 711 after modest intraday swings. In the physical market, PB fines in Shandong traded at 765–770 yuan/mt, down slightly by up to 5 yuan/mt; Tangshan saw a similar move, with prices at 770–778 yuan/mt. Pig iron production cuts due to blast furnace maintenance eased this week, with affected volume falling 191,300 mt to 969,000 mt, according to SMM. SGX June TSI 62% Fe fines rose 0.46% to $98.10/t, supported by stable demand despite muted trading activity.
Copper
Copper gained as the US dollar weakened amid political and monetary policy concerns. LME 3-month copper rose 1.80% to $9,357.50 by 15h29 BST. President Trump’s fresh criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for immediate rate cuts spooked markets, stoking fears over central bank independence. At the same time, tensions with China remained elevated, as Beijing accused Washington of weaponising tariffs and cautioned other nations against aligning with US trade policies. Copper, viewed as a bellwether for global economic activity, also found support on speculation that tariffs could extend to copper imports, reinforcing its strategic and economic relevance.
