23rd April 2025
*Coal*
Newcastle coal futures slipped to $94/tonne in April, marking a 25% decline year-to-date and hitting their lowest level in four years. The drop reflects a potent mix of weak demand and ample supply across major producing regions.
A milder winter across China and other key Asian importers reduced demand for power generation, sharply weighing on seaborne coal prices. This coincided with a 1.3% year-on-year dip in output from China’s fossil-fuel power plants during the first two months of the year.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices softened on Wednesday as fresh signals of oversupply weighed on sentiment. Brent crude futures fell nearly 2.5% to $65.81/bbl by 16h22 BST, marking an 11% slide since the start of April. The pressure followed Kazakhstan’s announcement that it would continue producing above its OPEC+ quota, citing national interests over cartel obligations—a move likely to exacerbate tensions within the group. This comes as several member states push for more aggressive output increases in June, in line with an already accelerated pace set for May. On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump eased fears by backing down from threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and hinting at possible tariff reductions on Chinese imports. These developments lent some support to crude markets amid otherwise bearish fundamentals. Adding to the complexity, the US imposed new sanctions on a senior Iranian figure involved in crude and LPG shipments, sparking speculation over potential export disruptions from Iran. WTI crude for June delivery, now the front-month contract, was last seen down $0.44 at $63.23/bbl, while June Brent slipped $0.50 to $66.94/bbl.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European gas prices were slightly weaker but showed signs of stabilising, with Dutch TTF futures down 0.31% to €34.17/MWh at 16h25 BST. Steady LNG inflows and moderate temperatures have helped rebuild inventory, which now stands at 37% following the winter drawdown. Storage levels remain a key market focus as the continent gears up for next heating season. To address possible shortfalls, EU member states have agreed to more flexible storage targets, permitting a shortfall of up to 10 percentage points below the 90% November target in deteriorating market conditions. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain in play as China continues to warn against alignment with US trade policy, raising the risk of a broader trade conflict.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures surged to near three-week highs, buoyed by positive sentiment around US-China trade relations and firm downstream demand in China. The most-traded DCE I2509 contract jumped 2.11% to close at CNY 727.5. Market activity was brisk, with traders actively selling. In the physical market, PB fines in Shandong were transacted at around 775 yuan/mt, up 3–5 yuan from yesterday, while Tangshan prices were slightly mixed at 775–780 yuan/mt, reflecting a 2–5 yuan decline. On the international front, the benchmark SGX May contract rose 1.61% to $100.25/t by 16h29 BST. Optimism was driven in part by President Trump’s remarks on Tuesday indicating a willingness to reduce tariffs on Chinese exports, signalling a potential shift in US trade policy and lifting market sentiment across steelmaking commodities.
*Copper*
Copper extended its rally on Wednesday, reaching a three-week high amid receding global trade tension fears. LME 3-month copper climbed 0.21% to $9,369.50 by 16h30 BST, after hitting an intraday peak of $9,481.50—the highest since early April. The red metal has rebounded over 15% since touching a 17-month low earlier this month, supported by improving macro sentiment. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both hinted at a possible easing of trade tariffs with China, suggesting any forthcoming agreement could “substantially” cut duties. The market largely shrugged off fundamentals in favour of headline-driven momentum, as traders responded to shifts in political rhetoric. Analysts at Commerzbank noted that if the de-escalation narrative continues, copper’s rally could extend further. Also contributing to the bullish tone was Trump’s softened stance on the Fed, withdrawing his threat to dismiss Chair Powell—a move that helped ease broader investor concerns.
