*Coal*
Coal markets saw divergent trends on Thursday. API2 prices eased, continuing their recent downward trajectory, while Newcastle coal (NEWC) swaps were supported by renewed buying interest. The divergence reflects regional differences in demand and freight conditions, with the European market still adjusting to softer fundamentals, while Asia shows flickers of stabilisation.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude futures edged up to $66.26/bbl (+0.2%) on Thursday, stabilising after a nearly 2% drop midweek. The market is weighing the prospect of accelerated OPEC+ output increases, as the group reportedly considers another larger-than-expected hike in June. Kazakhstan’s refusal to cut output in its major oil fields, citing national interests over cartel quotas, adds tension within the bloc.
On the demand side, trade developments supported sentiment. US President Trump signalled a willingness to halve the current 145% tariff on Chinese imports to restart talks, while Treasury Secretary Bessent called the current tariff regime “unsustainable.” However, the White House clarified that no unilateral tariff rollbacks are imminent. Meanwhile, new US sanctions on Iranian oil exports have added complexity to supply expectations.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas prices continued their slide, with Dutch TTF gas down 1.22% to €33.66/MWh, marking a new seven-month low. The drop reflects soft demand from Asia, particularly China and India, coupled with ample LNG supply to Europe. EU gas storage levels are currently 37.5% full, and while restocking efforts are underway, analysts at ANZ note that Europe still needs to secure 30% more gas than usual to meet its mandated targets.
Asian buyers are expected to become more competitive in the months ahead as the region approaches peak summer demand, potentially redirecting cargoes away from Europe.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures in China dipped, with DCE’s most-traded contract (I2509) closing down -0.28% at CNY 720.5. The market remains sluggish as seasonal demand fades and traders weigh macro signals. Positive momentum was limited by ongoing trade tensions, though signs of easing emerged after President Trump suggested US-China tariffs could be reduced.
Simultaneously, Beijing’s stimulus efforts are gaining traction, with a sharp increase in bond sales and a 10-month high in construction PMI—offering some support to steel-related commodities. SGX May TSI 62% Fe fines settled at $98.75/t (-0.65%).
*Copper*
Copper prices traded just below a recent three-week high, buoyed by a softer dollar but capped by ongoing trade uncertainty. LME 3-month copper was last seen at $9,398.50/t (+0.18%). The greenback weakened as President Trump backed away from threats to fire Fed Chair Powell and hinted at easing tensions with China. These moves helped underpin industrial metals, though the lack of concrete action on tariffs kept gains limited.
