LME Lead

27th October 2025

Global commodity markets started the week mixed, with energy prices weighed by ample supply while metals found support from improved sentiment around US–China trade discussions and expectations of monetary easing.

Coal

Trading was quiet today, with limited activity in NEWC swaps. API2 swaps opened softer, slipping about $1, before recovering through the session to finish more than $1 higher across most of the curve. European gas prices weakened, with the front month down over 2%, while oil remained volatile but ended the day largely unchanged.

Brent Crude
Brent fell below$65.50/bbl today, reversing earlier gains as worries over ample global supply outweighed optimism about a US-China trade framework. Prices had risen after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a “substantial framework” was reached with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, to be discussed by leaders this week. Talks touched on export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl tariffs and agricultural trade. New US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil lent support, but the IEA still sees a market surplus as output from the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina outpaces demand.
Spot Brent at 16h30 GMT – $65.23/bll, down 0.70%

European LNG
Dutch TTF slipped 2.5%, the weakest since 19 August, as mild, windy weather across northern Europe cut heating and power demand. Strong wind generation, higher Norwegian pipeline flows and steady LNG arrivals have eased supply tightness. Softer Chinese demand has freed cargoes for Europe. EU storage sits high (~82.8%), with Italy 94.5%, France 92.8% and Germany 75.3%. Markets remain cautious after the EU announced future restrictions on Russian energy, including a phased ban on Russian LNG from 2027.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h37 GMT – €31.31/MWh, down 2.16%

Iron Ore
Dalian’s I2601 settled at 786.5 yuan, up 1.94%. Mills bought to meet demand while trading was subdued. Tangshan’s environmental restrictions began this week, with blast-furnace maintenance and idling cutting hot-metal output and ore demand. Positive US-China trade signals and US CPI data, which bolstered Fed rate-cut expectations, supported futures. A recent coke price rise is squeezing mill margins and should curb hot-metal production, limiting further upside for ore.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 15h54 GMT – $105.70/mt, no change

Copper (LME)
Copper pushed toward record highs. Optimism over a US-China accord plus supply disruptions at major mines underpinned the rally. The metal is up about 25% this year, recovering from earlier trade-war related losses, as investors eye tight supply amid rising long-term demand. BHP projects global demand to jump sharply by 2050. Softer US inflation reinforced bets on an imminent Fed rate cut, adding momentum.
LME 3-month copper at 16h25 GMT – $11,013/mt, up 0.52%

Lead
Primary lead availability remains tight, with October largely sold out in some regions and November pre-sold. Low social inventory supports prices. Imported lead margins have widened as new batches trade. Battery makers signalled month-end production cuts, which could reduce consumption. After a rapid rise, lead faces risk of a pullback if demand softens.
LME 3-month lead at 16h26 GMT – $2022.50/mt, 0.27%

Overall, markets remain cautious but broadly steady, with traders balancing optimism over potential policy shifts against persistent supply and demand imbalances across key commodities.