31st October 2025
*Coal*
The weakness that began yesterday afternoon continued today, with API2 coal futures falling the most—down over $1 across the curve. European gas prices were relatively stable, easing only slightly, while Brent crude ended the day largely unchanged. In the physical market, Newcastle coal attracted firmer bids, keeping NEWC swaps well supported.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices were steady today but remain on track for a third consecutive monthly decline, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, weak Chinese economic data, and rising global supply. Market sources indicated that Saudi Arabia may cut its December crude prices for Asia to multi-month lows, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A Chinese manufacturing survey showed factory activity contracting for a seventh straight month, while growing exports from top producers are expected to cushion the impact of sanctions on Russian oil. OPEC+ is expected to approve a modest output increase at its meeting on Sunday. Data from JODI also showed Saudi crude exports rising to a six-month high of 6.41 million bpd in August.
_Spot Brent at 16h50 GMT – $64.37/bll, up +0.36%_
*European LNG*
European gas futures eased below €32/MWh, extending their recent range near 18-month lows as mild weather and robust LNG supply kept the market well-supplied. Forecasts show temperatures across much of Europe staying above seasonal norms into November, limiting heating demand. Strong LNG exports from the U.S. and Middle East continue to offset lower EU storage, which has shifted to net withdrawals and now stands around 82.8% full—roughly 12 percentage points lower than a year ago. The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month fell 0.7% to €31.16/MWh, down 2.7% for the week, as speculative funds trimmed long positions by 14 TWh. The EU’s planned 2027 ban on Russian LNG remains a longer-term structural concern.
_Spot Dutch TTF at 17h00 GMT – €31.21/MWh, down -0.81%_
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures softened, with the most-traded Dalian I2601 contract closing at 800 yuan, down 0.56%. Spot activity was muted as mills purchased only for immediate needs and traders remained cautious. Port pick-ups fell this week, nudging inventories slightly higher though still within manageable levels. With environmental curbs in Hebei lifted, blast-furnace restarts are expected to lift daily hot-metal output and stabilise demand. On the macro front, the U.S. Fed’s rate cut met expectations, while the absence of fresh China-U.S. policy announcements kept sentiment subdued. Iron ore prices are likely to remain firm but range-bound next week.
_Spot SGX 62% Fe at 16h41 GMT – $106.85/mt, down -0.14%_
*Copper (LME)*
Copper eased as a stronger U.S. dollar curbed buying interest. LME three-month futures fell 0.8% to $10,843/mt after briefly topping $11,100 earlier in the week. The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.81, making commodities more expensive for non-U.S. buyers. Despite today’s dip, copper remains up over 5% on the week amid continued mine disruptions across major producing regions. Traders are watching upcoming Chinese sentiment data for demand cues. In the domestic market, sentiment improved modestly though higher premiums limited buying activity. Shanghai copper cathode procurement sentiment was 2.93 and sales sentiment 3.17, with early-session parity offers softening later in the day.
_LME 3-month copper at 16h46 GMT – $10,889.50/mt, down -0.24%_
*Lead*
LME lead opened at $2,023/mt and traded quietly through the Asian session, fluctuating between $2,020–2,025/mt. Prices rallied in early European trading on optimism following the U.S.–China meeting but later pared gains amid weak fundamentals, closing at $2,022/mt, up 0.15% on the day.
_Spot LME 3-month Lead at 16h48 GMT – $2017.50/mt, down -0.22%_
*Chrome*
Market activity remained subdued this week, with only two notable bulk transactions reported today. In Tianjin Port, South African 40–42% chrome concentrate futures traded at $280/tonne, down $2, with 60,000 tonnes scheduled to ship before 15 December. Later reports confirmed that on the previous day, a major South African producer sold 25,000 tonnes of 40–42% concentrate at $282/tonne, unchanged week-on-week, chrome-to-iron ratio 1.3, for shipment before end-December. Market sentiment remains cautious amid expectations that Chinese stainless-steel producers may lower FeCr tender prices in December. On the Tianjin spot market, the latest transaction settled at 55.5 RMB, down from 56.25 RMB last week.
_HC FeCr (6–8.5%C, 65–70%Cr, max 1.5% Si, delivered Europe): $1.25–1.72/lb Cr_
_HC FeCr (6–8.5%C, 60–64.9%Cr, max 3% Si, CIF Europe): $1.09–1.33/lb Cr_
_FeCr 50% Cr import, CIF China: $1.01/lb Cr_
_FeCr spot 6–8%C, 50% Cr, DDP China: ¥8,600/mt_
_Chrome Ore South African（Cr2O3 40-42%）-（CIF China）$282/mt
_ Chrome Lump South African（Cr2O3 38%Min）-（CIF China）$252.50/mt)
