30th October 2025
Commodity markets showed mixed direction today, with early strength in coal and oil giving way to profit-taking later in the session, while gas prices eased and metals traded in narrow ranges amid shifting macro sentiment.
Coal
Coal markets traded mixed today. Early strength carried over from recent sessions, lifting swaps by around $1 in the morning, but weaker gas prices later in the day prompted selling and erased most of the gains, leaving swaps largely unchanged. In the physical market, a December DES ARA cargo traded at $98.75, notably higher than the last reported spot trade in early October at $91.00.
Brent Crude
Oil futures were rangebound as traders unwound gains from yesterday’s rally, following U.S. inventory drawdowns and a muted U.S.–China trade agreement. President Trump’s one-year deal with Beijing included a modest tariff cut — to 47% from 57% — in exchange for renewed U.S. soybean purchases and cooperation on fentanyl enforcement. However, no reduction in China’s oil imports from Russia was announced. Rising supply expectations weighed further on sentiment, with OPEC+ expected to confirm a 137,000 bpd output increase for December. Elevated production from the U.S. and North Sea, along with record tanker volumes of 1.4 billion barrels at sea, reinforced concerns over a persistent global surplus.
Spot Brent at 16h30 GMT – $64.14/bll – up, +0.66%
European LNG
European gas futures held below €32/MWh, staying near 18-month lows amid mild weather and steady LNG inflows. Above-average temperatures across continental Europe continued to limit heating demand, while strong U.S. and Middle Eastern LNG exports offset lower EU storage levels, now around 83% full. Storage sites have shifted from net injection to withdrawal mode, marking the seasonal turn. The Dutch TTF front-month contract eased €0.10 to €31.65/MWh, while December prices were slightly lower at €31.53/MWh. Analysts expect further withdrawals as temperatures dip slightly. Meanwhile, the EU’s forthcoming ban on Russian LNG imports by 2027 will eventually remove an estimated 17 bcm of supply. The EU carbon benchmark rose €0.38 to €79.17/ton. U.S. sanctions on Rosneft have also revived debate in Germany over potential nationalisation of its key refining assets.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h35 GMT – €31.38/MWh, down -1.17%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures edged higher early in the session before paring gains later in the day. The most-traded Dalian I2601 contract closed at 802.5 yuan, up 0.38%. Spot cargoes were steady, with PB fines in Shandong transacting around 800–805 yuan/mt. Sentiment improved following the U.S.–China leaders’ meeting, though a lack of fresh policy details prompted some profit-taking in the afternoon. While optimism over macro conditions provides short-term support, rising raw-material costs continue to squeeze steel mill margins, prompting expectations of production cuts that may cap further price increases.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 16h25 GMT – $106.30/mt, up +0.47%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices retreated from Wednesday’s record high after the U.S.–China meeting concluded with limited new measures. The LME 3-month contract fell about 3% to just below $10,900/mt after briefly touching $11,200/mt, extending this year’s gains to over 25%. The two leaders agreed to halve certain tariffs and lift Chinese rare-earth export restrictions, but comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioning against premature rate-cut expectations dampened momentum. Ongoing supply disruptions in South America and Africa continue to underpin the broader market, though near-term sentiment has cooled following profit-taking and reduced policy optimism.
LME 3-month copper at 16h25 GMT – $10,902/mt, down -2.60%
Overall, market tone remained cautious as traders balanced soft energy demand signals with supply-side developments and broader policy uncertainty ahead of key economic data releases later in the week.
