3rd November 2025
Commodity markets were mixed today, with strength in gas and oil contrasting with continued softness in European coal, while the physical Newcastle market provided some stability across the coal complex.
Coal
API2 prices extended their decline today, with near-term contracts slipping further despite strong gains in European gas, where front-month TTF rose nearly 2.5%. Brent crude was steadier, edging slightly higher on the day. The physical Newcastle market remained relatively firm, lending support to shorter-dated NEWC swaps, which outperformed other coal indices.
Brent Crude
Brent was range bound today as OPEC+ confirmed on Sunday it will raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in December before pausing output increases through the first quarter of 2026. The decision came as a Ukrainian drone strike hit Russia’s Tuapse oil port on the Black Sea, causing a fire and damaging at least one vessel. Analysts in a Reuters poll kept oil price forecasts largely unchanged, noting that higher OPEC+ supply and soft demand are offsetting geopolitical risks. Estimates for a market surplus range from 190,000 to 3 million bpd. Meanwhile, U.S. crude production reached a record 13.8 million bpd in August, according to the EIA, while business activity across Asia’s manufacturing hubs remained weak last month, tempering demand expectations.
Spot Brent at 16h25 GMT – $65.20/bll. Up +0.66%
European LNG
European gas futures stayed below €32/MWh, holding at their lowest levels in 18 months as mild weather and strong LNG supply continue to cap prices. Forecasts point to above-average temperatures across much of Europe through early November, reducing heating demand. Robust U.S. and Middle Eastern LNG exports are helping offset seasonal declines in EU storage, which has moved into net withdrawals at around 83% capacity—12 percentage points below last year. Analysts note that expanding global LNG capacity continues to suppress bullish sentiment. Looking ahead, the EU’s planned 2027 ban on Russian LNG is expected to remove roughly 17 bcm of supply from the market.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h30 GMT – €31.77/MWh, up +2.07%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures fell sharply, with Dalian’s most-traded I2601 contract closing at 782.5 yuan, down 1.82%. Weak mill demand and growing inventories pressured prices, while a new Level-2 environmental alert in Hebei curtailed sintering activity but left blast furnaces largely unaffected. Mounting losses among Shanxi steel mills have prompted new maintenance shutdowns, which are expected to lower hot metal output from mid-November. The news weighed on sentiment, triggering a steeper-than-expected selloff. Without stronger macro support, iron ore prices are likely to remain under downward pressure in the near term.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 16h16 GMT – $105.05/mt, down -0.38%
Copper (LME)
Copper traded flat as soft Chinese manufacturing data and a firmer dollar dampened sentiment. LME three-month futures hovered around $10,891/mt, down about 1% on the week. China’s latest PMI readings showed factory output expansion slowing in October, suggesting weaker industrial momentum. The U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 99.89, weighing on commodities priced in dollars. Although expectations for a December Fed rate cut have eased, ongoing supply disruptions at key global mines continue to provide some underlying price support.
LME 3-month copper at 16h17 GMT – $10,855/mt, down 0.27%
_ Overall sentiment remains cautious, with traders balancing short-term energy price volatility against steady supply conditions and limited fresh macroeconomic drivers ahead of month-end._
