4th November 2025
Commodity markets were mixed today, with strength in coal and gas offset by weakness in oil and base metals. Firmer bids in European energy markets contrasted with continued caution in industrial commodities as supply and macro concerns shaped sentiment.
Coal
Coal prices rebounded across indices today, with API2 and API4 gaining around $1.50, while NEWC swaps lagged slightly behind. European gas extended its rally, with near-term contracts up another 2%, and oil remained stable, with front-month Brent crude ending marginally lower. The physical DES ARA market saw firmer bids, while the physical Newcastle market held steady.
Brent Crude
Oil futures extended losses as traders weighed growing concerns about oversupply. Brent fell 1.2% to $64.08/bbl, while WTI dropped 1.4% to $60.18/bbl. OPEC+’s plan to pause production hikes in the first quarter of next year was framed as a seasonal adjustment, but analysts suggested it also signals caution over a potential glut. Commerzbank Research noted that initial gains following the OPEC+ decision faded as “concerns about oversupply gained the upper hand.” Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on Russia and recent Ukrainian drone strikes on key oil infrastructure added uncertainty to the supply outlook.
Spot Brent at 16h30 GMT – $64.54/bll, Down -0.54%
European LNG
European gas prices climbed back above €32/MWh as forecasts for cooler weather later in November lifted demand expectations. ANZ analysts said falling temperatures could test inventories that remain below last year’s levels, with EU storage currently 82.9% full. The Dutch TTF benchmark rose 1.2% to €32.11/MWh in afternoon trading. Despite the rebound, prices remain near 18-month lows, supported by strong LNG supply from the U.S. and Middle East. Gas Infrastructure Europe data show storage sites have shifted to net withdrawals, reflecting the seasonal turn. Longer term, the EU’s planned 2027 ban on Russian LNG is expected to remove around 17 bcm from supply.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h30 GMT – €32.25/MWh, Up +1.19%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures extended losses, with Dalian’s most-traded I2601 contract closing at 775.5 yuan, down 1.71%. Spot activity was subdued as mills bought only on need, while traders showed little urgency to offer. Hebei blast-furnace operations resumed this week as maintenance disruptions eased by 72,600 mt WoW, though ongoing sintering restrictions continue to limit short-term demand. The latest round of coke price increases further squeezed steel margins, and weak downstream consumption has reinforced expectations of reduced hot-metal output. Prices are likely to remain range-bound with a mild downside bias in the near term.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 16h30 GMT – $103.85/mt, Down -0.29%
Copper (LME)
Copper fell for a fourth straight session, hitting a two-week low as a stronger U.S. dollar and weak demand outlook pressured prices. LME three-month copper slipped as the cash contract traded at a $28/t discount to the forward, signalling comfortable near-term supply. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said the correction “showed fundamentals aren’t strong enough to sustain higher prices.” The dollar reached a three-month high, making metals more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, while China’s weaker yuan also dampened demand from the top consumer. Optimism over a U.S.–China trade deal faded after last week’s summit ended without a firm agreement.
LME 3-month copper at 16h37 GMT – $10,677.50/mt, Down -1.70%
Overall, energy markets remained broadly supported by seasonal demand expectations, while metals softened on stronger dollar pressures and subdued industrial activity, leaving traders focused on upcoming macro data and OPEC+ developments later in the week.
