5th November 2025
Commodity markets were mixed on Tuesday, with energy prices under mild pressure as oil extended losses and European gas retreated, while coal and base metals traded in narrow ranges amid cautious sentiment and limited fresh drivers.
Coal
European gas prices remained volatile today, with near-term contracts down around 2% and continuing to trade within a narrow range. Brent crude saw broader weakness, falling more than 1% on the day. In the coal market, offers in the physical Newcastle market eased slightly, lending support to NEWC swaps.
Brent Crude
Oil prices fell as traders reacted to a sharp rise in U.S. inventories and a broader selloff across global markets. Brent slipped toward $64/bbl, while WTI hovered near $60/bbl. Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude stocks rose by 6.5 million barrels last week — the largest increase since late July — with official figures due later today. A stronger dollar and weaker global equities added to the risk-off tone, pressuring most commodities. Meanwhile, Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, claiming strikes on Lukoil’s Nizhny Novgorod refinery and other plants. Russia’s seaborne crude exports fell sharply last month, the steepest drop since January 2024, after U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil led India and China to scale back purchases.
Spot Brent at 16h 40 GMT – $64.07 bll, down -0.57%
European LNG
European gas prices edged lower in early trade after gains in the previous session. The Dutch TTF front-month contract fell 1.9% to €31.93/MWh but remains up more than 1.5% for the month. Analysts noted the market remains largely unconcerned about potential winter supply risks despite EU inventories sitting at 83% capacity, below the five-year average of 92%. Weaker speculative interest reflects the impact of mild weather and ample LNG arrivals from the U.S. and Middle East. Forecasts show above-normal temperatures across Europe into November, keeping demand subdued. The EU’s upcoming 2027 ban on Russian LNG remains a long-term factor, expected to remove about 17 bcm of supply from the market.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h41 GMT – €31.75/MW5, down -2.05%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures traded narrowly lower, with the main Dalian I2601 contract closing at 776 yuan, down 0.26%. Spot prices at major ports slipped 2–3 yuan/tonne, with PB fines in Shandong at 780 yuan and in Hebei at 790 yuan. Market activity was moderate as traders adjusted shipments to demand and mills restocked selectively. Average daily pig iron output edged up to 2.39 million tonnes, keeping demand stable, though higher raw material costs and weak steel consumption continue to pressure margins. With another round of coke price hikes expected, some mills may cut output, suggesting near-term iron ore prices will remain soft and range-bound.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 16h37 GMT – $104.15/mt, down -0.24%
Copper (LME)
Copper remains under pressure despite an uptick in afternoon trade. The metal is weighed by a stronger U.S. dollar, weaker Chinese demand, and easing supply concerns. The metal, up 22% so far this year. Sentiment was dampened by China’s weak manufacturing PMI data, with further direction expected from upcoming trade and credit figures. The yuan fell to a two-week low, making dollar-priced metals costlier for Chinese buyers. Copper inventories in Guangdong continued to decline, driven by reduced arrivals and higher warehouse withdrawals. As prices fell sharply, suppliers held offers firm while buyers showed stronger interest, leading to improved overall trading activity compared with the previous day.
LME 3-month copper at 16h33 GMT – $10,686.50, up +0.25%
Lead
Lead prices are expected to remain range-bound but volatile as macro and supply–demand factors offset each other. A stronger U.S. dollar, supported by the Fed’s hawkish stance despite a rate cut, has weighed on base metals broadly, while China’s “old-for-new” replacement policy and product upgrades continue to underpin battery demand. On the supply side, smelter operations are gradually recovering, but limited waste battery feedstock is constraining recycled lead output. Tight treatment charges are also supporting concentrate prices. Demand remains mixed—energy storage batteries are performing strongly, while traditional segments such as automotive and e-bike batteries stay weak. Spot market activity is subdued, with downstream buyers purchasing only as needed. Overall, the lead market remains finely balanced, pointing to continued price stability within a narrow trading range.
LME 3-month lead at 17h20 GMT – $2018.50/mt, down -0.17%
Overall, markets reflected a defensive tone, with traders balancing macro headwinds from a stronger dollar and higher U.S. inventories against steady physical demand in coal and selective resilience in industrial metals.
