6th November 2025
Commodity markets were mixed today, with coal and iron ore showing relative resilience amid weaker moves in oil, gas, and metals. Energy markets continued to grapple with shifting supply signals and muted demand expectations, while industrial commodities traded cautiously on softer macro sentiment.
Coal
API2 swaps came under early pressure, falling by around $1 in the morning session before recovering as buying interest emerged later in the day—most notably in the CAL26 contract, which caused the curve to steepen slightly in backwardation. Newcastle swaps saw another session of steady buying amid limited sell-side liquidity, pushing prices higher once again. Meanwhile, Chinese domestic coal prices, stable in recent weeks, continued to edge upward this week.
Brent Crude
Brent crude futures eased to around $63.20/bbl as the market digested Saudi Arabia’s latest price cuts and persistent supply concerns. Saudi Aramco lowered its December official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by $1.20 to a $1.00/bbl premium over the Oman/Dubai benchmark, signalling a more cautious demand outlook following OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes for early next year. Meanwhile, U.S. restrictions on Russian oil and continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets are disrupting trade flows. India, a key buyer of Russian crude, is now diversifying its sourcing, with refiners like Reliance reportedly reselling Middle Eastern cargoes. Rising OPEC+ and non-OPEC production has reinforced fears of oversupply, though sanctions on Russia continue to lend some support to prices.
Spot Brent at 16h53 GMT – $63.02/bll, down -0.79%_
European LNG
European gas futures slipped below €32/MWh, remaining near 18-month lows as mild weather and abundant LNG inflows limited demand. Forecasts indicate above-average temperatures across Europe into November, curbing heating needs. Analysts from Equinor and the TEA noted that record LNG export capacity from the U.S. and Middle East continues to cap price gains, offsetting tighter EU storage levels now at 83%—around 12 percentage points lower than last year. Seasonal withdrawals have begun, but market sentiment remains subdued amid comfortable supply conditions. The EU’s 2027 ban on Russian LNG, expected to remove 17 bcm from the market, remains a longer-term factor.
Spot Dutch TTF at 17h04 GMT – €31.55/MWh, down -0.48%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures firmed modestly, with Dalian’s most-traded I2601 contract closing at 777.5 yuan, up 0.65%. Market sentiment improved slightly after earlier weakness, with stable hot metal output helping offset signs of slowing end-user demand. Steel mill maintenance remains limited, supporting steady consumption in the near term. However, iron ore continues to face seasonal headwinds as China’s steel sector enters its low-demand period. On the SGX, 62% Fe fines fell to $102.65/mt, marking a sixth consecutive daily decline and the longest losing streak since August, as optimism around the U.S.–China trade truce faded.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 16h53 GMT – $103.70/mt, down -086%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices edged lower in afternoon trade despite a softer dollar, with LME three-month futures easing amid profit-taking and reduced speculative positions. Analysts at Sucden Financial described the decline as a technical correction rather than a shift in fundamentals. The metal remains supported by lower U.S. rates, improving U.S.–China trade sentiment, and ongoing supply-side risks. Meanwhile, India’s Adani Enterprises announced that its subsidiary Kutch Copper Ltd signed a non-binding deal with Australia’s Caravel Minerals to fast-track development of a copper project in Western Australia.
LME 3-month copper at 16h48 GMT – $10,685.50/mt, down -0.14%
Overall, trading remained balanced, with coal supported by firm buying interest and stable fundamentals, while crude and base metals eased under broader market pressure. Sentiment across commodities stayed cautious as traders awaited further direction from macroeconomic and policy developments.
