12th September 2025
Energy markets firmed on renewed geopolitical risks, while metals were mixed to firmer, with iron ore supported by mill restocking, copper holding above $10,000/mt on tightening supply, and chrome showing cautious strength amid improving ferrochrome demand.
Coal
Newcastle swaps extended losses early in the session, with prompt contracts falling about $1.50, before recovering through the day as broader energy markets firmed. Headlines around potential Russian oil and gas sanctions supported sentiment, with Brent up 2% and European gas up just over 1%. API2 remained relatively stable, edging slightly higher by the close.
Brent Crude
Brent rose nearly 2% as fresh supply concerns overshadowed oversupply and weaker U.S. demand signals. The Kremlin confirmed a pause in peace talks with Ukraine, raising the risk of further Western sanctions. A drone attack on Russia’s Primorsk terminal—one of its largest export hubs—halted loadings overnight, while India’s Adani Group banned tankers under Western sanctions from all its ports, potentially curbing Russian flows. India remains the top buyer of Russian seaborne crude, much of it carried on vessels sanctioned by the EU, U.S., and U.K.
Spot Brent at 16h35 BST – $67.58 BST, up 1.82%
European LNG
European gas prices held steady as geopolitical risk premiums kept traders cautious. Northwest European delivered prices tracked modest gains in TTF, while Asian LNG benchmarks mirrored the geopolitical premium seen in Europe rather than local fundamentals. Analysts highlighted ongoing EU–U.S. sanctions discussions against Russia and Israel’s escalation in Qatar as key drivers. Qatar’s role as a major LNG supplier to Europe kept markets sensitive to potential disruptions.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 16h36 – €32.72, up 1.37%]
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures closed largely unchanged, with the most-traded I2601 contract at 799.5 yuan/mt, down 0.06%. Port inventories rose to 130.41 Mt (+880,000 WoW) as arrivals exceeded offtake, though daily pick-up volumes climbed to 3.05 Mt (+75,000 WoW). Hot metal output continues to rebound, and pre-holiday stockpiling by mills is providing demand support. With expectations of a U.S. Fed rate cut next week, sentiment remains constructive, leaving scope for further upside into next week.
Spot TSI 62% Fe on SGX at 16h26 BST – $105.38/mt, down 0.28%
Copper (LME)
Copper held firm above $10,000/mt, buoyed by weak U.S. labour data reinforcing expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts and tightening global supply. China’s September refined output fell 5% (~500,000 tonnes), while LME inventories remain 40% below the five-year average. Cancelled warrants rose, pointing to stronger Asian demand. Market focus shifts to next week’s Chinese metals data, though only aggregate output will be released. Analysts warn that mine disruptions and limited capex could deepen long-term supply tightness against steady demand growth.
LME 3-month Copper at 16h30 BST – $10070.50, up 0.18%
Chrome
The chrome ore market was steady, with frequent inquiries but limited trades as buyers awaited updated overseas offers. Easing vehicle restrictions at Tianjin Port reduced freight costs, while rising ferrochrome production underpinned procurement needs. Inquiry activity improved, though buyer acceptance of current ore prices remained cautious. Prices for low- and micro-carbon ferrochrome climbed, boosting demand for high-grade ores. Zimbabwean concentrates held firm amid smooth shipments, while South African fines stayed stable in a wait-and-see market. Traders remain bullish, expecting steady demand and a modest upward bias near term.
Spot Chrome CFR China:
40–42% South African fines: $275–278/mt
48–50% Zimbabwe concentrates: $345–355/mt (unchanged)
Oil gained on supply shocks and geopolitics, while LNG steadied under the same risk premium. Iron ore was resilient on mill demand and expectations of Fed easing, copper stayed firm on tightening supply, and chrome markets edged higher on stronger ferrochrome production and steady overseas offers.
