11th September 2025
Coal
Weakness in coal prices persisted, with NEWC swaps selling off sharply as lower offers in the physical Newcastle market continued to drive the decline. DES ARA remained more stable, but broader energy weakness added to the bearish tone. European gas fell 2.5% on shorter dates, while Brent crude slipped nearly 2%, reinforcing pressure across the energy complex.
Brent Crude
Oil prices fell today as concerns over softening U.S. demand and oversupply outweighed geopolitical risks from the Middle East and Ukraine. The IEA said in its monthly report that global supply will rise faster than expected this year as OPEC+ raises output, while OPEC’s own report left non-OPEC supply and demand forecasts unchanged, citing steady consumption. OPEC+ confirmed plans on Sunday to increase production from October. Analysts noted the market remains torn between rising tensions that threaten supply and evidence of oversupply from higher OPEC+ output and swelling inventories.
Spot Brent at 17h27 BST – $66.35/bll, down 1.70%
European LNG
European natural gas prices dropped over 3% today. Traders weighed the risk of tighter sanctions on Russia and escalating geopolitical tensions. Funds increased net positions in TTF by 12 TWh last week, breaking an eight-week bearish streak, according to DNB Carnegie. Concerns also lingered after Israel struck Hamas leadership in Qatar, a key LNG supplier to Europe. Still, storage levels at 79.6% capacity—just shy of the EU’s 80% November target—combined with the end of Norwegian maintenance, provide some reassurance on supply flexibility heading into winter.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 17h28 BST – €32.40/MWh, down 3.14%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures eased, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at 795.5 yuan/mt, down 0.81%. While today’s data showed apparent demand rebounded and inventories of major steel products grew at a slower pace, weak rebar demand and high valuations after recent gains prompted profit-taking. Despite the pullback, overall ore demand remains solid and end-use consumption is gradually recovering, keeping prices expected to fluctuate at elevated levels in the near term.
Spot TSI 62% Fe on SGX at $14h36 BST – $105.35, down 0.05%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices held above $10,000/mt on the LME, supported by supply risks in Indonesia and improved Chinese demand signals. Freeport’s Grasberg mine was temporarily closed as workers trapped underground were rescued, with analysts warning that extended disruption could tighten global supply. In China, easing factory-gate deflation raised hopes for stronger demand, though domestic spot premiums softened as downstream appetite weakened and suppliers cut prices. U.S. copper futures hovered at $4.5/lb, down from the one-month high of $4.6 seen earlier this month, as markets balanced slowing demand against reduced refining capacity in China.
LME 3-month Copper at 17h24 BST – $1063.50, up 0.50%
Energy markets softened on oversupply concerns despite geopolitical risks, while European gas held steady on strong storage levels. Iron ore corrected on profit-taking but remains underpinned by demand recovery, and copper stayed firm above $10,000/mt amid supply risks and cautious optimism over Chinese consumption.
