10th September 2025
Commodity markets were mixed on Wednesday, with energy contracts gaining on heightened geopolitical risk while bulk and base metals traded in relatively narrow ranges.
Coal
Coal swaps remained under pressure, with NEWC contracts again the weakest, reflecting ongoing softness in the physical Newcastle market. DES ARA was also slightly better offered than yesterday, adding to the bearish tone. By contrast, energy benchmarks were firmer, with short-dated Brent crude up 2% on geopolitical tensions and European gas edging higher, providing limited spillover support.
Brent Crude
Brent futures extended gains for a third session, rising above $67/bbl as Middle East tensions added to bullish sentiment. Israel confirmed strikes on Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar, escalating risks in a country that plays a key role in regional energy flows. The move followed warnings of fresh strikes on Gaza City. Oil also drew support from OPEC+’s modest October hike of just 137,000 bpd, far smaller than previous months’ increases. Geopolitics extended beyond the Middle East: U.S. President Trump urged the EU to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods as leverage against Moscow, while U.S. crude stocks rose 1.3m barrels last week, following a smaller build the week prior.
Spot Brent at 17h24 BST – $67.70/bbl, up 1.97%
European LNG
European gas futures climbed above €33/MWh, near a two-week high, on intensifying geopolitical risks. Israel’s strike in Qatar raised concerns given Doha’s role as a major LNG exporter to Europe, while Russia escalated drone strikes on Ukraine. EU leaders are also weighing fresh sanctions on Russian banks and energy firms. Still, storage levels offered reassurance at 79.6%, close to the 80% November target, while the winding down of Norwegian maintenance is set to improve supply flexibility in the weeks ahead.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 17h26 BST – €33.34/MWh, up 2%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures fluctuated but closed firmer, with the most-traded I2601 contract on DCE ending at 805 yuan/mt, up 0.25%. Traders followed market trends while mills cautiously accepted higher prices and purchased as needed. Market activity was moderate, though hot metal production continued to trend higher despite some seasonal mill maintenance. With output expected to rise further next week, ore prices are likely to stay rangebound but supported in the near term.
Spot TSI 62% Fe on SGX at 16h01 BST – $106.40/mt, down 0.05%
Copper (LME)
Copper pushed back above $10,000/mt, as stability returned following the deferral of U.S. tariffs on refined metal. Physical flows into CME warehouses have continued, but the CME premium over LME has stabilised near $100/ton, back to pre-tariff levels. Investor positioning remains cautious, with CME copper contracts shrinking to decade-lows in August and only modest recovery since. Funds remain net long largely due to an absence of short positions, while bullish activity is still tentative after a volatile first half of the year.
LME 3-month Copper at 17h22 BST – $10,013/mt, up 0.97%
Geopolitics drove energy markets higher, with Brent and European gas extending gains, while coal swaps stayed under pressure on continued Newcastle weakness. Iron ore steadied on stronger mill output, and copper regained the $10,000/mt threshold as market stability returned, though investor caution lingers.
