8th September 2025
Energy markets found support from OPEC+ restraint and renewed geopolitical risks, while industrial metals traded mixed, with iron ore firming on stronger production expectations and copper holding steady as traders await key macro data.
*Coal*
Coal swaps traded weaker for much of the day, pressured by continued softness in the physical Newcastle market, which weighed on NEWC swaps. API2 also slipped early on, before a sharp 3.5% rally in front-month European gas helped the curve recover to near unchanged levels. Physical DES ARA markets were slightly better offered, adding to the muted tone across the complex.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude rebounded, climbing more than 2% intraday to above $66.5/bbl, as OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase and geopolitical risks intensified. The group agreed to raise output by 137,000 bpd from October, well below the hikes of 555,000 bpd in August–September and 411,000 bpd in June–July. Upward pressure was also fuelled by Russia’s largest air assault of the war, which struck a government building in Kyiv for the first time. Meanwhile, President Trump said European leaders would meet in Washington early this week to discuss possible steps toward resolving the conflict.
_Spot Brent at 16h47 BST – $66.16/bll, up %1.02%_
*European LNG*
European natural gas prices were steady around €33/MWh, consolidating near levels seen since mid-August when prices touched a 15-month low. EU storage is now above 78%, keeping the bloc on track for its 80% target by November 1. LNG imports remain over 50% higher YTD, supported by record U.S. exports in August as plants completed maintenance. While supply remains comfortable, some traders continue to hedge against Q4 risks through options, betting on higher prices if flows tighten.
_Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 16h48 BSt – €33.00/MWh, up 3.27%_
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures firmed, with the most-traded I2601 contract on DCE closing at 792 yuan/mt, up 0.64%. Global shipments slipped to 34.46 Mt last week (–880,000 mt WoW) as Brazilian volumes pulled back, partly offsetting gains from Australia and other suppliers. Chinese port arrivals rose to 28.5 Mt (+6.06 Mt WoW) on delayed vessels, though overall supply showed little net improvement. With hot metal production expected to rebound and optimism over potential U.S. rate cuts sustaining sentiment, prices held up well and are likely to remain supported in the near term.
_Spot TSI 62% Fe on SGX at 16h20 BST – $105.40, +0.00% _
*Copper (LME)*
Copper steadied as markets digested weaker U.S. jobs data, which reinforced bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday showed hiring slowed more than expected, raising expectations for faster monetary easing. Traders now await U.S. inflation data later this week, alongside similar releases from China, the world’s largest metals consumer. In China, trading sentiment stayed firm, with a large influx of imported cargoes boosting supply. Shanghai inventories increased by 6,600 mt, with more arrivals expected, tempering near-term gains.
_LME 3-month Copper at 16h45 BST – $9917/mt, up 0.22% _
Oil regained ground on restrained OPEC+ supply hikes and intensifying geopolitical risk, while European gas steadied as storage builds continue. Iron ore prices stayed supported by higher production expectations, while copper held in a tight range ahead of key inflation data in the U.S. and China.
