3rd September 2025
Commodity markets moved lower in energy but held firmer in industrial metals, with traders balancing upcoming OPEC+ decisions, resilient LNG inflows, and mixed demand signals from China.
Coal
Coal swaps saw a subdued session, with prices across indices ending the day little changed. European gas and oil were more volatile, with gas up about 1.5% and front-month Brent down nearly 2%, though the moves offered limited spillover to coal. Physical Newcastle and DES ARA markets were steady, providing little direction for swaps.
Brent Crude
Oil prices fell more than 2% ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, where producers are expected to discuss raising October production targets. An increase would accelerate the unwinding of voluntary cuts of 1.65m bpd (1.6% of global demand), more than a year ahead of schedule. Preliminary Reuters surveys pointed to declines in U.S. crude, distillate, and gasoline stocks last week, though official figures are due later. Meanwhile, Russian seaborne exports to China rebounded sharply as the world’s top importer absorbed cargoes redirected from India, where demand has softened under aggressive U.S. tariffs.
Spot Brent at 16h36 BST – $67.52/bll, down 2.33%
European LNG
EU gas storage levels are now above 77%, keeping the bloc on track to reach its 80% target by November 1 as winter heating demand approaches. LNG imports into Europe have risen more than 50% YTD, bolstering supply security after Russian pipeline flows were halted. U.S. LNG exports hit a record high in August as key plants completed maintenance, adding further supply. Meanwhile, reports suggest EU members are considering legislation to ensure a complete ban on Russian gas by end-2027, closing loopholes used by dissenting states.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 16h37 BST – €32.15 MWh, up 1.18%/
Iron Ore
Chinese iron ore futures held firm, with the most-traded I2601 contract on DCE closing at 777 yuan/mt, up 0.71%. Traders maintained firm offers, while mills stayed cautious, keeping transactions subdued. This week, 18 blast furnaces entered maintenance and 16 resumed, mostly in Tangshan, resulting in a net decline of 63,200 mt in hot metal output. With the military parade concluding, production is expected to normalise, and output is likely to rebound. Market expectations of recovering demand continued to support ore prices.
Spot TSI 62% Fe on SGX at 16h28 BST – $103.45/mt
Copper (LME)
Copper inched above $10,000/mt on the LME, recovering from recent volatility tied to global trade tensions. Heavy inflows of material into the U.S. ahead of tariffs have tightened supply elsewhere, keeping U.S. futures at a premium to LME prices. Sentiment is supported by a weaker dollar and the prospect of U.S. rate cuts, though uncertainty persists over Chinese demand. Analysts see a tug of war between supply-side tightness and risks from China’s slowing economy as the key driver into year-end.
LME 3-month Copper at 16h31 BST – $9970/mt, down 0.14%
Energy markets weakened ahead of key OPEC+ decisions, even as LNG supply flows supported European storage. Industrial metals diverged, with iron ore holding steady on expectations of a demand rebound, while copper pushed past the $10,000/mt mark on tight supply and macro support.
