2nd September 2025
Commodity markets traded mixed, with energy contracts supported by geopolitical risks and upcoming OPEC+ decisions, while industrial metals found resilience in demand indicators.
Coal
NEWC swaps came under renewed pressure today, even as API2 and API4 held relatively firmer. The physical Newcastle market was better offered, adding to bearish sentiment in swaps. European gas prices were more stable, while oil remained volatile, with front-month Brent rising over 1%, offering only limited spillover support.
Brent Crude
Brent edged higher as markets looked ahead to this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting and weighed supply risks from the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Analysts expect the group to keep voluntary cuts from eight members (incl. Saudi Arabia and Russia), helping anchor prices in the $60/bbl range. The U.S. summer driving season ended with Labor Day yesterday, signalling peak demand has passed. On supply, Ukrainian drone strikes have shut ~17% of Russia’s refining capacity (~1.1m bpd). Kazakhstan’s crude output rose to 1.88m bpd in August (from 1.84m in July).
Spot Brent at 16h37 BST – $68.94/bll, up 1.16%
European LNG
European gas prices ticked up as Norwegian maintenance tightened flows. Daily volumes to Europe have slipped below 240 mcm/day (from ~340 mcm/day in early August), with extended work at Troll adding pressure. EU storage is 77.5% full—below the 5-yr average (85%) but on track for the 80% by 1 Nov target. Despite today’s rise, Dutch Gas TTF is still over 5% lower M/M.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 16h38 BST – €31.96/MWh, down 0.31%
Iron Ore
Iron ore was steady, with the most-traded I2601 (DCE) closing at 771.5 yuan/t, +0.06%. Trading stayed muted as mills bought cautiously and inquiries eased. Higher crude lent a marginal tailwind, but supply-side constraints persist: blast-furnace maintenance impact rose to 1.52 Mt this week (↑ w/w). A sustained demand rebound looks unlikely until production curbs ease.
Spot TSI 62% Fe on SGX at 16h37 BST – $103.05/mt, up 0.54%
Copper (LME)
Copper advanced toward $10,000/t on a softer dollar and resilient demand. Prices have held firm despite the U.S. stopping short of tariffs on widely traded copper forms; U.S. futures remain at a premium to LME, drawing metal to America. In China, apparent consumption rose ~10% y/y in H1 (Zijin Mining), supporting the physical market.
LME 3-month Copper at 16h32 BST – $9974/mt, up 0.90%
Energy is supported by geopolitics and OPEC+ policy expectations, while industrial metals are mixed—copper firmer on demand resilience, iron ore capped by production curbs. All eyes on the OPEC+ meeting and evolving flow data for direction into the week.
