15th September 2025
Markets opened the week balancing geopolitical risks with shifting supply and demand fundamentals. Energy and metals traders remain cautious as geopolitical developments, central bank expectations, and seasonal factors continue to shape price action across commodities.
Coal
After nearly two weeks of daily declines, Newcastle swaps staged a retracement. October’s discounted physical offers, which had been weighing on sentiment, appear to have been absorbed over the weekend. Although November physical offers came in lower today, the contango structure meant they still cleared above last week’s October levels. This allowed swaps to stabilise and claw back ground after a prolonged slide. API2 coal contracts also softened slightly, following the broader energy complex.
Brent Crude
Brent crude edged higher as markets weighed geopolitical risks against demand concerns. Ukrainian drone strikes overnight targeted Russian infrastructure, briefly sparking a fire at the 355,000 bpd Kirishi refinery and raising questions about flows from Primorsk, which can load up to 1 million bpd. Adding to the pressure, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated that Europe should halt Russian oil imports, warning of possible sanctions if NATO allies follow suit. Talks between Washington and Beijing in Madrid are also under close watch, with the U.S. pressing for tariffs on Chinese imports linked to Russian crude purchases. Gains were tempered by concerns over slowing U.S. demand and a looming supply surplus as OPEC+ production increases.
Spot Brent at 16h50 BST – $67.42/bll, up 0.64%
European LNG
European natural gas prices eased as abundant LNG inflows and mild, windy weather weighed on demand. EU storage stands at 80.4%, down from 93.2% a year ago, with Germany at 75.1%, France at 89.9%, and Italy at 90.1%. Supply could tighten later this week with maintenance scheduled at Germany’s Emden terminal. Geopolitical risks remain a factor, with Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project still shipping cargoes to China, and U.S. President Donald Trump signalling further sanctions on Russian energy if NATO allies align.
Dutch TTF Gas at 16h50 BST – €32.25/MWh, down 1.18%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures remained under pressure, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at CNY796, down 0.31% on the day. Weaker sentiment was driven by cautious steel mill demand and risk-off positioning ahead of a major industry conference on the 18th. Brazilian exports rose slightly, while Australian and non-mainstream flows declined. Despite short-term headwinds, rising hot metal production, pre-holiday stockpiling, and expectations of U.S. rate cuts could provide a floor for prices and support a rebound.
Spot 62%Fe iron ore on SGX at 16h16 BST – $106.25/mt, up 0.71%
Copper (LME)
LME copper held firm above $10,100/t, supported by tightening supply. Freeport-McMoRan confirmed mining at Grasberg remains suspended following a mud flow incident, raising the risk of prolonged disruption at the world’s second-largest copper mine. Supply concerns are amplified by China’s 5% September production drop, which removed about 500,000 mt from the global market, and LME inventories that remain 40% below their five-year average. Market sentiment is also buoyed by expectations of U.S. monetary easing, improving the demand outlook for industrial metals.
LME 3 month copper at 16h45 BST – $10,185/mt, up 1.16%
Commodities are navigating a complex backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, shifting trade dynamics, and evolving supply-demand balances. With volatility likely to remain elevated, markets will be watching closely for policy signals, production updates, and macroeconomic data releases in the days ahead.
