16th September 2025
Commodities traded mixed today as markets balanced supply disruptions, central bank expectations, and shifting demand signals across energy and metals.
Coal
Coal markets accelerated higher, with prompt Newcastle swaps surging by $3 on the day. Despite a steady flow of cheap November physical tonnes trading just below $100, the November swap settled sharply stronger at $107. API2 swaps opened more than $1 lower but reversed course as strength in Newcastle, alongside firmer gas and oil prices, fuelled a rally. The benchmark swung nearly $3 intraday from trough to peak before closing up $1.50 across the curve.
Brent Crude
Brent crude futures rose 1%, extending gains on heightened supply risks from Russia. Pipeline operator Transneft warned producers they may need to cut output after Ukrainian drone strikes continued overnight on key export hubs and refineries, including Primorsk. Goldman Sachs estimates the campaign has sidelined roughly 300,000 bpd of refining capacity since August, while Reuters reported pipeline operators are restricting storage, adding to logistical bottlenecks. The EU is weighing new sanctions, potentially targeting Indian and Chinese firms that facilitate Russian oil trade. On the macro side, attention is on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with markets widely expecting a 25 bps rate cut that could support U.S. growth and crude demand. Official U.S. inventory data is due Wednesday at 1430 GMT.
Spot Brent at 16h39 BST – $68.37/mt, up 1.38%
European LNG
European gas futures were rangebound today as strong LNG inflows and mild, windy weather capped demand. EU storage stands at 80.4%, down from 93.2% a year earlier, with Germany at 75.1%, France at 89.9%, and Italy at 90.1%. Planned maintenance at Germany’s Emden terminal later this week may temporarily tighten supply. Broader geopolitical risks remain in play, with Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project continuing to deliver cargoes to China and the U.S. signalling that further sanctions on Russian energy could follow if NATO allies align.
Dutch TTF Gas at 16h40 BST – €32.34/MWh, up 0.6%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures traded above CNY803, recovering from earlier losses as Chinese steel output rose. Daily crude steel production in early September averaged 2.09 Mt, up 7.8% year on year, while inventory restocking ahead of the National Day holiday provided support. Imports were robust, with 25.6 Mt arriving last week and August volumes reaching 112.4 Mt, bolstered by strong shipments from Brazil and clearing of port backlogs. However, property market weakness persisted, with new home prices falling 0.3% in August, underscoring fragile demand. Additional headwinds came from emission cuts in Tangshan, where some mills are expected to idle blast furnaces. With both supply and demand under pressure, prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term.
Spot 62% Fe iron ore on SGX at 16h35 BST – $105.25/mt, down 0.61%
Copper (LME)
LME copper eased after touching its highest level in over a year. Benchmark three-month copper fell 0.5% to ~$10,134/t by 1105 GMT, after reaching its recent high. The rally above $10,000 has deterred Chinese buyers, traders said, prompting profit-taking. Expectations of a U.S. rate cut this week weighed on the dollar, which could support metals demand by making dollar-priced commodities cheaper elsewhere. Analysts noted, however, that positioning ahead of the Fed meeting may limit immediate reaction. Market focus also turned to rising copper inventories in Shanghai warehouses, raising concerns about softer Chinese consumption.
LME 3-month copper at 16h33 BST – $10,147/mt, down 0.47%
Commodity markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions and macroeconomic shifts. With the U.S. Federal Reserve decision looming, volatility is expected to persist as traders weigh monetary policy signals against evolving supply and demand fundamentals across energy and metals.
