17th September 2025
Commodities traded mixed today as traders positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, balancing geopolitical tensions with shifting supply and demand dynamics.
Coal
Positive momentum in Newcastle swaps persisted, with parts of the curve adding another $1 following yesterday’s sharp rally. The physical Newcastle market reflected the strength, with firmer bids reported through the day. API2 swaps traded stronger for much of the session but eased back into the close, ending near unchanged.
Brent Crude
Brent crude eased after climbing more than 1% in the previous session, though geopolitical risks provided a floor. Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve, with investors expecting a 25 bps rate cut later today that could lower borrowing costs and support fuel demand. Concerns over Russian supply persist following recent Ukrainian attacks on export infrastructure, while Kazakhstan confirmed it resumed oil flows via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline after last month’s contamination issues. Traders are also watching the role of new Fed governor Stephen Miran in shaping policy direction.
Spot Brent at 16h30 BST – $68.05/bll, down 0.66%
European LNG
European natural gas futures slipped toward €32/MWh as strong LNG arrivals and mild, windy weather curbed demand. EU storage stands at 80.4%, down from 93.2% a year earlier, with Germany at 75.1%, France at 89.9% and Italy at 90.1%. Planned maintenance at Germany’s Emden terminal later this week may tighten supply temporarily. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain elevated, with Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project continuing deliveries to China and the U.S. signalling possible new sanctions on Russian energy if NATO allies align.
Dutch TTF Gas at 16h30 BST – €32.32/MWh, down 0.25%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures held steady, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at CNY804.5, down just 0.12% on the day. Steel industry data showed the blast furnace operating rate at 86.38% across 242 mills, while daily hot metal production rose modestly to 2.3983 Mt. Shrinking mill profits have prompted more maintenance, limiting supply growth, though overall iron ore demand remains resilient. With expectations of U.S. rate cuts and optimism around future Chinese policy support, ore prices are likely to remain elevated in the short term.
Spot 62% Fe iron ore on SGX at 16h30 BST – $105.50/mt, down 0.05%
Copper (LME)
Copper fell to a one-week low as traders pared positions ahead of the Fed’s decision, with muted demand from China following the recent rally above $10,000/t. Market participants are looking beyond the expected rate cut to the Fed’s signals on future policy direction, with softer U.S. labour data fuelling expectations of further easing. In supply news, Chile is projecting record national copper output of 6 million tonnes by 2027, despite ongoing operational challenges at Codelco and Teck Resources. July figures showed resilience, with Codelco reporting 118,500mt for the month, up 6.4% YoY, and BHP’s Escondida mine producing 114,800mt, up 7.8%.
LME 3-month copper at 16h30 BST – $9993.50/mt, down 1.33%
Markets remain on edge ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, with traders weighing the impact of monetary policy shifts against ongoing supply disruptions and fragile demand trends. Volatility is expected to remain elevated across commodities as policy and geopolitical signals continue to shape sentiment.
