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LONDON COMMODITY NEWS 29/11/2024

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Coal
The coal market continued to face bearish sentiment today, with both API2 and Newcastle (NEWC) coal futures closing slightly lower. This weakness followed more pronounced drops earlier in the trading session. Subdued physical market activity in both DES ARA (Europe) and Newcastle (Asia-Pacific) regions offered little direction, reflecting muted demand and limited liquidity.
Despite European natural gas prices rallying by approximately 2.5% during the day, this did not translate into significant support for coal markets. The uptick in gas prices was linked to expectations of increased heating demand due to colder weather forecasts. However, coal markets appeared largely decoupled from gas price movements as warmer-than-usual conditions continued to curb coal consumption, particularly in power generation.
The ongoing shift towards alternative energy sources and stronger LNG availability in Europe has also weighed on coal, compounding bearish sentiment. With limited physical activity and a lack of clear demand catalysts, coal markets are struggling to gain momentum as we approach the end of November.

Brent Crude
Brent crude oil futures eased below $73 per barrel on Friday, as traders digested geopolitical risks following accusations of ceasefire violations between Israel and Hezbollah. Additional concerns stemmed from warnings by Russian President Putin about a potential new missile strike on Ukraine, elevating risks to energy infrastructure. Markets remain cautious ahead of the postponed OPEC+ meeting on December 5, where the group will discuss the possibility of extending production cuts to prevent a supply glut. Despite these factors, Brent remains on track for a 3% weekly decline due to soft demand signals and easing geopolitical concerns earlier in the week.

TTF Gas
European natural gas futures ticked up to €47.5 per megawatt-hour, supported by forecasts for cooler weather in December and rising seasonal heating demand. However, storage levels in Europe, now at 86.65% full, remain significantly lower than this time last year, stoking concerns over winter supply adequacy. Meanwhile, uncertainties persist around the expiration of Russia’s gas transit deal with Ukraine and strong LNG demand in Asia, both of which could tighten European gas markets.

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices climbed above $102 per ton, buoyed by robust Chinese steel production, which grew by 9.5% in the past three weeks compared to the same period last year. Optimism around potential economic stimulus from Beijing also provided support, offsetting concerns about declining industrial profits in October. Market attention is shifting to China’s key economic meetings in December, which could set the tone for infrastructure investment and broader industrial activity in 2024.

Copper
Copper futures rebounded on Friday, trading above $9,000 per metric ton as sentiment improved on hopes of stimulus from China. Support also came from a weaker US dollar, which retreated after US PCE inflation data aligned with expectations. Traders are keeping a close eye on developments from China’s upcoming Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference meetings, which are expected to outline measures to sustain growth amid ongoing concerns about global economic uncertainty.

Lithium
Lithium carbonate prices increased to CNY 79,000 per tonne, marking a recovery from near three-year lows reached in October. The rally was driven by supply curbs and stronger demand, particularly after Chinese subsidies incentivised EV purchases. Rising demand has prompted battery manufacturers to restock, while mine closures in Australia and China have tightened supply. These dynamics underline the broader market recovery as the EV industry continues to expand.

Robust China coal demand amid Australia import ban fuels price rally: Russell

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By Clyde Russell | Reuters

Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), but enjoying strong gains amid rising demand.

Both thermal coal, used in power plants, and coking coal, used to make steel, have rallied strongly in recent months. And in both cases the driver has largely been China, the world’s biggest producer, importer and consumer of the fuel.

There are two elements to China’s influence on seaborne coal markets in Asia; robust demand as the Chinese economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic; and Beijing’s policy choice to ban imports from Australia…Full Story

Thermal coal fires NSW budget

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By Lou Caruana | Mining Monthly

HIGHER thermal coal prices have prompted the New South Wales government to increase its budget forecast for money raised from mining royalties by $50 million to $1.6 billion in 2021-22.

That means mining royalties are forecast to raise nearly $6.4 billion over the next four years, delivering significant ongoing funding for the NSW Generations Fund.

Mining royalties represent a significant proportion of revenue for the fund, which is expected to grow to $90 billion by 2031 and has delivered investment returns of 8.6% since its inception in late 2018.

NSW Minerals Council CEO Stephen Galilee said mining royalties were helping underpin the NSW government’s fiscal strategy and infrastructure program through provision of strong ongoing revenues into the NSW Generations Fund.

“Once again mining royalties are providing an economic boost to the state budget, with royalty revenues now embedded as a critical component of the government’s fiscal strategy,” he said…Full Story

ASIC raids mine at centre of fake coal testing claims

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By Liam Walsh | Australian Financial Review

The corporate watchdog has raided the mining operation at the centre of allegations of fake coal analyses.

Queensland police on Monday helped officials from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission execute a search warrant on TerraCom, which runs the Blair Athol coal mine in the central part of the state.

ASIC confirmed the action to The Australian Financial Review but declined to comment further. ASX-listed TerraCom, which bought the mine from Rio Tinto in 2017, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The mining operation has previously denied having any hand in fixing coal certificates to artificially boost the commodity’s quality…Full Story

Australia’s rain will become India’s pain as coal flows halt

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By Clyde Russell | Reuters

Heavy rains and the worst floods in 50 years have shut the world’s largest coal-export harbour, but the impact from the closure of Australia’s Newcastle port is likely to hit hardest in India.

Rainfall of more than 1 metre (3.3 feet) in places in the past few days, and the threat of more to come, led to the shutdown of railways from coal mines in the Hunter Valley, north of Sydney, and the coal loaders at Newcastle Port, which shipped some 158 million tonnes of the fuel last year.

The bulk of the coal shipped from Newcastle is high-grade thermal coal used in power plants, along with smaller volumes of some grades of coal used to make steel…Full Story

Australian iron-ore and coal exports fall in January

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By Esmarie Iann | Mining Weekly

New data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has reported a A$3-billion, or 9%, decline in exports for the month of January, driven by a A$1.5-billion, or 10%, decline in the export of metalliferous ores.

“The decline in metalliferous ores was driven by a decline in the quantity of iron-ore exported in January. Despite the decline, exports of metalliferous ores are the second highest on record behind December 2020,” said ABS head of international statistics Andrew Tomadini...Full Story

India’s coal imports rebound as Australia wins market share

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By Clyde Russell | Reuters

India’s coal imports have revived in recent months to close to pre-pandemic levels, but the market shares of the countries supplying cargoes has shifted, mainly as a result of China’s dispute with Australia.

India imported 17.56 million tonnes of thermal and coking coal in January, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv.

This was down slightly from December’s 17.74 million tonnes and 18.02 million in October, but a touch above November’s 17.54 million…Full Story

Oil vs Water — Confessions of a carbon emitter

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From ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Having just returned from visiting nearly 50 countries in four months, Dr Forrest says he’s seen a paradigm shift in global thinking. Sovereign leaders, business people, politicians, financiers and technology developers have developed a “genuine thirst” for a rapid shift to green energy.

He argues Australia is perfectly placed to become a world leader in the production of green hydrogen energy. For Dr Forrest, the question is not whether green hydrogen will become the next global energy form, but who will be the first to mass-produce it?…Full Story

Shipping industry baulks at extra fees at Port Hedland for iron ore

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By Karen Michelmore | ABC News

Ship operators who carry Australia’s lucrative iron ore exports from Western Australia’s Pilbara region have baulked at new charges aimed at solving nearby dust pollution problems.

From March 1, the Pilbara Ports Authority will impose a $13,450 levy on every major ship load of iron ore from the world’s largest bulk export port at Port Hedland, 1,650km north of Perth.

The WA Government will use the money to compensate residents in up to 400 nearby dust-affected homes under a $200 million voluntary property buyback scheme negotiated with industry…Full Story

As China-Australia Ties Worsen, Iron Ore Remains Bulletproof

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By Michael Heath | Bloomberg

As China-Australia relations descend into a morass of sanctions and mutual recriminations, Beijing is delivering a huge cash windfall to Canberra and Australia’s economy through its insatiable demand for iron ore.

China has few alternatives as it seeks to stimulate its economy post Covid-19 through infrastructure investment, with Australia accounting for more than half of iron ore shipments globally. If Beijing were to try to purchase solely from non-Australian producers, at best it could get 56% of the volumes it typically imports, according to analysis by Goldman Sachs Group Inc…Full Story

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