14th April 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
API2 (April): $104.00/mt
API4 (April): $104.50/mt
Brent Crude: $96.05/bbl, down 3.32%
SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $105.30/mt, down 0.05%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,255.50/mt, up 1.56%
Energy markets remain the dominant driver of price action, with ongoing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continuing to reshape global oil flows and pricing dynamics. This has had knock-on effects across the commodity complex, with metals responding to a mix of demand signals, supply shifts, and macro uncertainty.
Coal
Oil and gas prices moved lower, with European gas declining steadily throughout the session and oil holding firm early before selling off more sharply in the afternoon. By the close, front-month European gas was down around 8%, while Brent crude had fallen approximately 4.5%.
The move was driven by expectations of renewed U.S.–Iran talks in the coming days, easing some immediate supply concerns despite the ongoing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Coal prices followed the weaker energy complex, with Newcastle (NEWC) swaps leading the decline, falling by up to $4 across parts of the curve.
Brent Crude
The recent dislocation in oil markets has seen U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trade at a premium to Brent Crude at times, highlighting a significant shift in market structure. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively constrained, accessibility has become a key pricing factor, favouring inland U.S. barrels that can be exported without exposure to geopolitical chokepoints.
Brent-linked crude from the Gulf has faced increased risk, with higher insurance costs and disrupted shipping flows weighing on its relative value. In contrast, WTI has benefited from secure pipeline logistics and export routes via the U.S. Gulf Coast. This dynamic has been further amplified by extreme backwardation, with near-term supply commanding a premium amid tight physical availability.
While this inversion is unusual, it reflects the current environment where physical security and deliverability outweigh traditional global pricing structures. However, limitations in U.S. export capacity mean WTI can only partially offset the supply deficit created by disruptions in the Middle East. Spot Brent remains elevated, reflecting acute tightness, and could move higher if disruptions persist, with demand destruction becoming a risk at extreme price levels.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices remained broadly stable, with futures fluctuating before closing largely unchanged. Spot prices edged slightly lower, while trading activity remained subdued as steel mills continued to purchase cautiously and only as required.
Demand remains firm, supported by near-peak blast furnace utilisation, while maintenance-related disruptions are easing. However, recovering supply—particularly from Australia following earlier weather-related disruptions—has introduced additional pressure, keeping the overall market balanced.
Looking ahead, iron ore is expected to remain volatile but supported, with strong underlying demand offset by improving supply conditions. Any sustained shift in pricing will likely depend on further changes in supply flows or macroeconomic sentiment.
Copper
Copper prices pushed to a six-week high, supported by optimism around a potential resumption of U.S.–Iran negotiations and a weaker U.S. dollar. Improved sentiment has helped the market recover from earlier pressure linked to rising energy costs and growth concerns.
Fundamentals also remain supportive, with ongoing supply constraints and rising input costs—particularly energy—adding upward pressure. Tightness in key inputs such as sulphuric acid and underperformance in major producing regions have reinforced the constructive outlook.
However, copper remains highly sensitive to macro developments. While current momentum is positive, the market remains vulnerable to renewed geopolitical escalation or signs of weakening demand, particularly given its close link to global industrial activity.
The current market environment continues to be shaped by disruption and uncertainty, with energy dynamics feeding directly into broader commodity pricing. While some markets are finding support from fundamentals, the overriding influence remains geopolitical risk. Until there is greater clarity on supply flows and the stability of key trade routes, volatility is likely to persist across the complex.
